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Tag Archives: stock market top 2013

View of Greedometers now: buckle up.

  Here is a short video showing the current Greedometer 13 and mini Greedometer 13 sequence.  It shows an expected SPX drop next week –unless something new and yummy comes from one of the top central banks –or unless the Commander in Tweet says a trade deal with China will happen this week.   This video explains how we got here.   At some […] Read the rest of this entry »

FREE. Greedometer Newsletter is now free

  Yup. Free. Until further notice, the weekly Greedometer letter will be free. No restrictions. Use the Contact Us form to send your info. An account will be created for you. You’ll have access to the Greedometer and mini Greedometer sequence and the supporting SPX & GDP forecast.  At some point, ads will begin running. Until then, enjoy.      

Note to Central Bankers (reprise)

Since my last warning of inconvenient reality beginning to happen (March 6th): The Fed has formally backed away from any more rate hikes this year, committed to ending QT by September, and threatened to expand the balance sheet again (more QE!). The ECB has announced a new (3rd) LTRO program and threatened to do more if need be. The PBoC has threatened to do […] Read the rest of this entry »

ECB hears the message and spikes the punch bowl

This morning the ECB announced several new supportive policy measures (punch bowl spiking) to prevent the stock market from dropping -ahem- maintain the efficacy of its monetary policy transmission mechanism. The Greedometer algorithms continue to warn when central banks need to spike the punch bowl or risk the possibility of price discovery and actual market based mechanisms inflicting reality. No, the ECB is not […] Read the rest of this entry »

Note to Central Bankers

Hello Fed, ECB, BoJ, PBoC, SNB. At least one of you must threaten to spike the punch bowl this week. Otherwise reality will start to happen again.    

Fund Management: $T Opportunity coming

  First, the punchline:  $40-50T is going to evaporate from global equities over the next 12-18 months (the end date depends on effectiveness of central bank ammunition that is yet to be deployed). FYI we’re still down $10T from the peak in January 2018.  The crash that will unfold in 2019-2020 is going to introduce a significant opportunity for investment strategies that profit (or […] Read the rest of this entry »

Todays FOMC: Fed caves

The Fed caved to what markets wanted (needed?). Chairman Powell did an admirable job in his press conference of calmly conveying a message that everything is somewhat  awesome, but the global economy is slowing, and the Federal government shutdown is  having a dampening effect (neither of those things are the fault of Fed policy).  So, we’re now fully migrated to expectations for no rate […] Read the rest of this entry »

Tomorrow: Powells Big Day

Today and tomorrow the Fed has an FOMC meeting. Tomorrow afternoon has the statement  and presser. BTW now every FOMC meeting has a press conference -instead of every second meeting. So every meeting gives the Fed a chance to calm/steer markets. Fed Chair Powell will announce one of these three things tomorrow: Maintain the “everything is great” position and threaten 2 rate hikes this year. […] Read the rest of this entry »

Can you quantify next year? Would you like to?

The past quarter has been a tough one if your portfolio was heavily tilted towards risk assets. You may be wondering what 2019 will look like. Well, the Greedometer algorithms say 2019 is going to be brutal. By the end of next week, the Greedometer algorithms will  have a pretty tight forecast for: the month the U.S. economy enters recession the scale of recession […] Read the rest of this entry »

GDP Report: does not matter- but not why you think

A few minutes ago the BEA (commerce department branch that estimates GDP) provided their 3rd estimate on Q3 GDP. their 1st estimate was +3.5% their 2nd was +3.5% today’s was +3.4% BEA Q3 GDP data since year 2000 yields these observations: 2nd estimates are 0.3%  higher than the 1st 3rd estimates are  0.02% higher than the 2nd (essentially the same) years after the fact, […] Read the rest of this entry »