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Tag Archives: GDP overestimated

Can you quantify next year? Would you like to?

The past quarter has been a tough one if your portfolio was heavily tilted towards risk assets. You may be wondering what 2019 will look like. Well, the Greedometer algorithms say 2019 is going to be brutal. By the end of next week, the Greedometer algorithms will  have a pretty tight forecast for: the month the U.S. economy enters recession the scale of recession […] Read the rest of this entry »

GDP Report: does not matter- but not why you think

A few minutes ago the BEA (commerce department branch that estimates GDP) provided their 3rd estimate on Q3 GDP. their 1st estimate was +3.5% their 2nd was +3.5% today’s was +3.4% BEA Q3 GDP data since year 2000 yields these observations: 2nd estimates are 0.3%  higher than the 1st 3rd estimates are  0.02% higher than the 2nd (essentially the same) years after the fact, […] Read the rest of this entry »

Newsletter closed to new subscribers

  Hello folks. The Greedometer® and mini Greedometer®  12 sequences have this year been impacted by numerous actions from several key central banks and by a new level of U.S. fiscal profligacy. This has all been absorbed by the Greedometer® and mini Greedometer®  algos. They are now generating a forecast for the S&P500 that is going to be very useful over the next two years. I […] Read the rest of this entry »

and the BoE too

On Monday this week I did a blog post wherein I wondered which central bank would spike the punch bowl this week to keep the party going / stop it from ending. I did this because the Greedometers suggested stock market pain was once again on our doorstep. On Tuesday morning my question was answered when the PBoC dropped bank reserve ratios in a […] Read the rest of this entry »

Answer: PBoC

Yesterday I did a blog post asking which central banker will spike the punch bowl this week? This morning around 7am east coast N America we got the answer: the PBoC -so far. In a surprise move the PBoC lowered reserve requirement ratio for banks a full 1% (that’s a fair bit).  Loads of yummy risk-seeking liquidity came /will come into global markets. Unfortunately […] Read the rest of this entry »

ECB asks DB about winding down

Arguably the most important bank in Europe is Deutsche Bank. And yet it continues to struggle with the worst price to book of any systemically important financial institution. Over the weekend the ECB asked it to submit plans about how it would wind down its investment bank. FT article here.  Hmm. Gone are the days when the ECB & EBA were made laughing stocks […] Read the rest of this entry »

Which central banker will threaten to spike the punch bowl this week?

This is a huge week for earnings with approximately 200 S&P500 companies reporting. However, earnings have not mattered to S&P500 company / index prices in many years. You are probably aware that as of late January 2018, with the S&P500 setting new all time highs near 2900 we have these metrics: Top 4 most expensive S&P500 points in time as measured by Price to […] Read the rest of this entry »

20 years of central banks stopping crashes to build the everything bubble in 2018

Other than a tornado watch, it’s a pleasant Sunday afternoon in North Carolina. Time for a big picture update. I went through my data (will be 20 years in January 2019). Here’s what it showed. 1. The time between Greedometer sequences has dropped following an exponential decay curve. This suggests the economy and stock market keep crashing and being saved by policies that don’t […] Read the rest of this entry »

The significance of this week: all good things must come to an end

All good things must come to an end. This includes central bankers propping up global asset markets. I’m assuming you know that central bank actions and threats of actions to “spike the punch bowl” have been nonstop over the past several years — frequently within 48 hours of me doing an interview or blog post that a drop was imminent and thus preventing the expected […] Read the rest of this entry »

Add BoJ and ECB to PBoC efforts to stop a market drop 2 weeks ago

Two weeks ago I wrote a brief blog post saying the PBoC was buying across the board – equity index futures, forex, bonds —all to stop a stock market drop. It worked for a few hours. link here  Turns out the ECB and BoJ were busy as well. The ECB turned its QE printing press to 11 for a few hours and vacuumed up European […] Read the rest of this entry »