The S&P500 will be more than cut in half from the near 2800 seen in January 2018 through Q1 2019 –provided there are no more large scale short term band-aid fixes from central banks (QE etc). These band-aid fixes fail to address the main structural economic problems we’ve been kicking down the road since 1999 i.e., nonproductive debt and a tax code that incentivizes excessive risk taking and Ponzi-esque finance. This forecast includes an expected budget deficit blowout in 2018, two 2018 Fed rate hikes (March and June), and further threats from the ECB, BoJ, PBoC to normalize policy rates but very little action.
Because the economic and stock market forecast are so dire, expect there will be more central bank threats to spike the punch bowl (not raise interest rates, slow/stop shrinking central bank balance sheets, threaten more QE programs) — as there was last year. These threats will slow the currently anticipated crash and extend the topping out process –all of which will be graphically represented in the Greedometer and mini Greedometer sequence.
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