A brief update. Not looking good for the economy and stock market later this year. Looking downright brutal. Unless another large blue pill can be found.

U.S. to enter recession approx September –absent a new sugar bomb. But I do expect another sugar bomb or two.

  • Likely we’ll see the Fed announce rate cuts are coming (sb #1) in the next 6 weeks. Warp the sequence slower, push out the recession entry point.
  • China-US trade deal announced –at some point in the next 3-4 months. More warping. See the video.

 

Greedometers.

  • SPX inflection point (weekly close basis) will be either last week or this week. Won’t know until we see a higher mG13 value. All plausible:
    • This week closes around 2700, generates a slightly lower mG13 value, generates a slightly steeper baseline (faster crash) than what’s shown. SPX inflection point this week.
    • This week closes within 0.5% of last week’s close. Generates an Mg13 value a smidge lower than last week, causing 2 weeks in a row to be on the baseline. SPX inflection point this week.
    • This week sees the SPX closes in the 2800-2830 range. Generates a noticeably higher mG13 value for this week. SPX inflection point last week.
  • In all 3 cases it takes 3-5 weeks for the SPX to reach the 2nd topline (next inflection point). Likely in the 2900 neighborhood.
  • UNLESS A NEW SUGAR BOMB IS DROPPED –spilling coffee on the map.
  • Reminder: we must observe a 1st mG baseline point to use the system with low risk.

 

Next a word from our sponsor: Feel free to tell your friends, family, broker, central banker, bank risk manager, dog about this free access to the Greedometer. Next week the Greedo / SPX info will be behind a login –that you’ll create (free access still).  Enjoy!

 

Speaking of dogs…. Sully the quant dog going takes a break from data wrangling to go for a drive…

Sully takes a break from quant work