ECRI’s data for last week was released this morning.  At +4.3 it shows an economy still growing, but the pace of growth is really begin to slow.  I track the WLI and several other macroeconomic data streams (as you know).  My forecast continues to be that the US economy enters recession in September.  By then, the ECRI WLI (in black on the chart below) will likely drop under the -8 reading (-2 on the chart below).

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