The most recent data from S&P shows 90% of S&P500 companies have reported Q4 earnings.
Here’s a scorecard:
- As reported earnings per share are down nearly 14% from Q3, and down 10.6% from Q4 the previous year. Note: this includes a likely 2% tailwind from share buybacks.
- Trailing 12mo earnings (a broader view) is up 3% –but again nearly all of that gain is from buybacks.
- Profit margins using as-reported earnings are 7.9%. Down from the other quarters of 2014 (8.9 to 9.4% — basically record setting margins).
S&P will likely have another update this Friday that gets us to 95%+ of companies reported. I don’t expect things to change much from these numbers. If anything, they’ll likely worsen a little bit from heavily-laden retail earnings at the end of earnings season.
For what it’s worth, the S&P500 CAPE is at approx 28 now (cash spx at 2116). This is the 3rd most over-priced stock market of all time. Year 2000 is #1. 1929 is #2. 2007 is #4.