Hi All.

Until I get the new login process going I’ll post updates to the blog. Here is what things look like now.

 

Greedometer 13 sequence

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mini Greedometer 13 sequence

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What this means:

  • Forecasting a decidedly painful future for risk assets. Since the stock market is a mechanism to keep consumers blissfully unaware of the eroding fundamentals of our economy, central banks continue to prop it up. So someone -at least 1- major central bank will blink before too long and stop this inconvenient reality from happening on their watch —> same as everyone else has for the past 20 years.
  • Note 1: I’m expecting the SPX to close the week in the 2770 neighborhood. The 200-day exponential moving avg is now at 2775. Should act as a decent resistance point if challenged.
  • Note 2: DO NOT put a lot of weight in the near term SPX forecast because we have not yet observed a 1st baseline point. Were that to be allowed to happen this week it would be the fist time since 2014 those minding the store let realty happen long enough for the mini Greedometer to nail an inconvenient forecast down. Fingers cross this happens so we can start putting boundaries on the forecast. A known framework from which we can then apply effects from new central bank sugar bombs and Trump Tweets as they happen –and still have a read on the forecast.

Now (that we’re about to see a 1st baseline point) is usually when one of these happens:

  • James Bullard threatens something unplanned and yummy.
  • The NY Fed Prez threatens something unplanned and yummy.
  • The BoJ threatens something unplanned and yummy.
  • The PBoC threatens something unplanned and yummy.
  • The Commander in Tweet tweets something marvelous.

We’ll see….