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Market Crash 2017-2018

 

 

Greedometer 8000

 

As of February 2017 we are once again in a lead-up to another protracted crash.  Will central banks be able to stop the 1-1.5 year long crash that will start very soon?

 

All Greedometer® sequences have been stopped (at different levels of maturity) by new and increasingly desperate central bank actions -and threats of actions.  However, when a sequence has been stopped, a new one loads with less risk-on holiday time than was seen before the launch of the latest sequence. This is key!  The time between Greedometer sequences has obeyed an exponential decay function as follows (from 1999 to now). This clearly shows that monetary policy is reaching the end of its efficacy.

time between Greedometer sequences

Isn’t it interesting that the velocity of M2 money in the U.S. has slowed during the same timeframe to new all time lows?  Monetary policy becomes less effective as velocity of money slows. So central banks have needed to take more desperate and more frequent actions as those actions become less effective.

Screen Shot 2016-05-18 at 3.00.07 PM

Back to 2017.

  • The Fed is painted into a corner wherein it will lose credibility if it has to do a Japan-like policy reversal and lower interest rates after raising them. Former Dallas Fed Prez Fisher says the “Fed is out of ammo”.
  • The ECB is all-in in terms of its negative interest rates and QE program.  It is doubtful the Bundesbank would permit the ECB to do a Japan-like QE program that buys equity ETFs — that would be wildly inflationary and introduce severe risk to Europe’s bourses when the ECB would have to sell their equity holdings.
  • The BOJ is very likely out of policy bullets. It is already buying all the new JGBs bring printed plus gobbling up most of Japan’s equity ETF universe.  How does it sell those equity ETFs without crashing the market?  How does it do more?
  • The PBoC already has a pseudo QE program and the lowest interest rates and bank reserve ratios ever.  How do they appreciably add to this?

 

The Greedometers show that central banks have been keeping bubbles from imploding (or imploding worse) for the past 18+ years.  Central banks can only keep doing this as long as their tools remain viable, and as long as their institutions remain credible.  As of February 2017 monetary policy ammunition is all but used up.  All that’s left is a global helicopter money drop –and that was threatened last month. Imagine the wave of global food & fuel inflation if a coordinated helicopter money drop were to occur. The bottom 60% of income earners in the U.S. would get crushed. The same in every other western country. The bottom 90% would get crushed in India and China. Tell me that would end well.

So 2017-2018 may finally see a Greedometer sequence not stopped by central banks –because they can’t. A U.S. stock market crash would burn itself out of natural causes.   This has not been seen since 1929-1930.