The Greedometer® gauge represents strategic risk levels in the S&P500 stock market index. The gauge is intended to warn prior to major / historically important stock market crashes and is supported by a database initiating in January 1999. As of September 2017, we are in the 11th Greedometer sequence. Each of the previous ten sequences were followed by the S&P500 crashing or beginning to crash. Each of these crashes / crash initiations were stopped by at least one of the tope central banks taking new action or threatening to take new action. There have been no missed calls, and no false alarms.
The time between sequences has been steadily and rapidly dropping.
This chart clearly demonstrates the time between Greedometer sequences is following an exponential decay with a near uniform decay constant. The fact this data follows an exponential decay suggests the underlying cause of the decay remains the same — and is inescapable. I have long maintained the U.S. economy has been coping with a balance sheet recession since year 2000 resulting from the 1982-2000 debt binge.