A few minutes ago the BEA (commerce department branch that estimates GDP) provided their 3rd estimate on Q3 GDP.

  • their 1st estimate was +3.5%
  • their 2nd was +3.5%
  • today’s was +3.4%

BEA Q3 GDP data since year 2000 yields these observations:

  • 2nd estimates are 0.3%  higher than the 1st
  • 3rd estimates are  0.02% higher than the 2nd (essentially the same)
  • years after the fact, the BEA lowered GDP estimates from their 3rd estimate by a truly epic average of 1.19% in 17 of 18 years and raised it once by 0.1%.

So no disrespect BEA, but you need to revise your process for estimating GDP growth. Your current process yields a worse result on the 3rd attempt than your 1st, and you apparently have a glaring bias wherein you overstate GDP growth massively in all 3 of your first estimates then lower it years later.