Good morning. It is day 2 of my anticipated 2-day drop. Yesterday worked out rather well. SPX futures are at 1913 at 6:30am this morning. Let’s see where they go from here.
I will be initiating a tactical long position in the S&P500 today. It will be held for 2-4 weeks –until the Greedometer sequence suggests it needs to be sold and replaced with another tactical short position. After today’s dip (how refreshing!), I expect the S&P500 to rally to 2030-2050 as the next peak 2-4 weeks from now. This forecast will be fine-tuned as we get closer (but not publicly). And YES– if the ECB or PBoC deliver or threaten new monetary steroids, that may impact this forecast and the sequence. That is the value of the Greedometers –> they are a feedback loop/ measuring system for central banker largesse (and fiscal policy largesse too –but that’s cupboard has been nearly empty for a while).
For those that follow SPX magic numbers:
- 1928: 150 dma
- 1927: Tom DeMark
- 1918: 5% drop from the 2019 peak
- 1910: Tom DeMark
- 1901: 200dma (a big one)
- 1900: because it’s a big round number
- SPX futures 1895: The bottom of the last trough (July). Probably maps to a cash SPX of 1900-1902.
If you’re targeting any of these numbers, be prepared to be frustrated by algo-bots. The bots would do the most damage if they were to drive the SPX to 1899 today or Monday morning. Volume selling would be triggered at 1900/1899, and they’d scoop up some deals. Not a forecast, just musing.
I’m sure there are some Elliott Wave magic numbers in this neighborhood too (1890-1930). I’m not a waver (no disrespect). Perhaps some of you blog followers will chime-in here with some E-W magic numbers.
Big Picture: S&P500 peak in 2-4 weeks time. November dip. Re-test within 1.5% in January. Then 70%ish 1.75-2yr crash. Pretty much the same thing I’ve been forecasting for the past 2 months. Subject to being slowed by new ECB and PBoC steroids.
I detest having to make these public calls, but it is necessary to lay a track record to convince some institutional fence sitters. No offense.
Let’s get on with it.