The latest Chicago Fed data shows the U.S. economy growing but approaching stall speed over the past year.

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With no new central bank sugar bombs and no new Trump tweets about upcoming unfunded tax cuts, the U.S. economy will fall into recession in Q2. I’m betting someone will keep the party going a little longer, stalling the recession entry until Q3.

For reference purposes, the trailing 12mo sum on the 3mo CFNAI avg was only slightly worse than this when the last recession started. Alas, we must allow some time for the “marvelous” unfunded Trump tax cuts to be announced and priced in.

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