The Chicago Fed CFNAI data for April was posted. If there are no more marvelous Trump tax cut tweets and Fed sugar bombs, the CFNAI 3mo avg will likely drop to -2.7 or lower in September. The U.S. economy would definitely be in recession then. Mind you the Commerce Department and Fed would not publicly state that they see a recession until at least 9 months after the fact (was nearly 11 months last time).

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