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Category Archives: Year End Views

The 2015 forecast

This being January, stock market and economic forecasts abound.  Here’s mine…. Global economic growth in 2015 will be the slowest in decades and global stock markets will have one of their worst years in history.  The only reason this forecast does not materialize is new policy actions are taken by the world’s 2nd, 3rd, and 4th largest central banks to stop the downward spiral. […] Read the rest of this entry »

Year End Letter 2011 (& 2012 Forecast)

Strategic Indicator:  Greedometer Last week, the greedometer registered 5400 rpm, a respectable but not unexpected jump from the previous week 4800rpm. And with that, we have the end of the year-end rise in the greedometer.  The 2011 set of greedometer readings resemble that of 2007. Indeed, both years saw the last or second to last week finish with a 5400rpm reading. Uncanny.  And foreboding.   (the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Our 2011 Prognostication…

It should be obvious from the factors we present herein, that merely extrapolating continued earnings growth and the stock market making gains in 2011 like it did in 2010 is overly simplistic and foolish. Yet, at the end of the day, this is essentially what Wall St is suggesting. Naturally, we see things a little differently. The range of outcomes for the broad US […] Read the rest of this entry »

2011 Wall St Prognostication

Every year at this time of year, Barron’s magazine interviews several of the most respect Wall St analysts for their prognostication for the year to come. They have a terrible record, but it sells copy. More importantly, it keeps the great unwashed (individual investors) in the game of perpetually expecting the stock market to rise. The common themes are that every year, Wall St […] Read the rest of this entry »

2009: The Immaculate Deception

2009 was the year of the immaculate deception. Desperate times called for desperate measures. In March, the broad US stock market averages were nearing a point that was 60% below their 2007 peak. Federal programs to address the crisis were initiated under the previous White House administration, and then carried on and expanded with the current one. The Treasury Secretary pronounced he would do […] Read the rest of this entry »

China Economic Forecast

OK, I know China is part of Asia. I am breaking China out separately because it’s situation is unique. Also, China is one of the few places I am investing in equities.     China is expected to grow in 2009, but at a much more modest pace. Many economists expect China to grow at 8% in 2009. This is widely believed to be […] Read the rest of this entry »

Asian (ex-China) Economic Forecast

The economic forecast for Asia is not rosy. Japan – the world’s second largest economy – has been largely stagnant for 18 years, and has renewed their downward economic slump via a recently announced recession. Japan’s economy is heavily dependent upon exports. Since its 2 largest markets (North America & Europe) are in recession, it is expected to continue to struggle.    South Korea […] Read the rest of this entry »

Seek Shelter in 2008

I am going out on a limb and am going to say the US will see a recession in 2008, and that many asset classes will struggle to have returns anywhere near their 10 year average. Keep in mind that in a survey in March 2001- 95% of economists said there would not be a recession – even though we were already in one […] Read the rest of this entry »