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Category Archives: US recession 2013

Q2 2013 GDP and the new GDP calculation

The BEA released it’s first estimate of Q2 2013 GDP (there are three in a row, followed by years of revisions). More importantly, the GDP calculation method was changed (happens every 5 years).  Effectively, there’s a new method to calculating GDP that makes the economy look better. The upshot: real (inflation adjusted) Q2 GDP rose at an annualized +1.7% pace.  real Q1 GDP was […] Read the rest of this entry »

Recession: Will I see you in September?

  ECRI’s data for last week was released this morning.  At +4.3 it shows an economy still growing, but the pace of growth is really begin to slow.  I track the WLI and several other macroeconomic data streams (as you know).  My forecast continues to be that the US economy enters recession in September.  By then, the ECRI WLI (in black on the chart […] Read the rest of this entry »

Update: U.S. Recession forecast

  I rely on the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI), ECRI’s WLI, and some other factors in forecasting broad U.S. economic growth rates.  My latest forecast is for the U.S. economy to begin contracting in August (September at the latest). By the end of August, the CFNAI will likely show a running total of economic damage in the -4.0 neighborhood. The latest data […] Read the rest of this entry »

BEA First Estimate of Q1 GDP

This morning the BEA announced they estimate Q1 GDP at: +2.5%. As you all know, the BEA provides three estimates for a previous quarter GDP, then update it again several years out. So don’t place a lot of weight in today’s estimate.  That being said, it is taken seriously by markets. I estimated the BEA would today provide a 3% GDP estimate, but my […] Read the rest of this entry »

June Recession call — still in tact

This morning saw the latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index report –always of interest to me. The 3-month rolling average showed continued declines in activity on a national basis -as I’ve been predicting. By the end of July, we’ll have the June data. My forecast calls for a -3.5 running total for the 3-month moving average.  It was -2.42 when the US entered the […] Read the rest of this entry »

We’re not in recession…yet

On Wednesday, I wrote in the weekly newsletter, than I expected the BEA to raise their estimate of Q4 2012 GDP from a -0.1% to +0.5%. The next day the BEA raised their estimate to +0.1%. Don’t worry, there will be another estimate at the end of this month. I suspect the BEA will raise it again. Mind you, the press release may be […] Read the rest of this entry »

When’s the next recession?

This morning the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its January National Activity Index — an excellent barometer of national economic health. The report made large upward revisions to previous estimates of November and December. So I expect an upward revision to Q4 2012 GDP from the previous -0.1% to something like +0.5% to be announced by the BEA at some point. As of […] Read the rest of this entry »