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Category Archives: US balance sheet recession

Year End Letter 2011 (& 2012 Forecast)

Strategic Indicator:  Greedometer Last week, the greedometer registered 5400 rpm, a respectable but not unexpected jump from the previous week 4800rpm. And with that, we have the end of the year-end rise in the greedometer.  The 2011 set of greedometer readings resemble that of 2007. Indeed, both years saw the last or second to last week finish with a 5400rpm reading. Uncanny.  And foreboding.   (the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories: US

The latest consumer confidence and small business confidence readings continue a steady increase since summer. The latest readings have risen almost all the way to the average level seen in recessions.  Outstanding!  Last week had an update on consumer credit. As has been the case for most of 2011, the headline reads ” Consumer credit expanded $7.7B in October”. OK, read a little further. All of that […] Read the rest of this entry »

3Q 2011 GDP. First read.

Preamble: The BEA (part of the US Federal govt) releases three estimates in the immediate months following a given quarter. It does such a poor job with these estimates that frequently several years after the fact it will radically adjust several quarters GDP growth estimates –when no one cares / when it won’t spook anyone. Talk about a mixed bag. The BEA’s initial estimate […] Read the rest of this entry »

Weekly Short Economic Stories

US : Operation twist is doing its thing. US mortgage rates fell to their lowest ever. The average rate for a 30-yr fixed mrtg fell to 4%. When that drops to a more-Japanese-like 3.25% in a few months, I won’t be surprised. A 2.5% 15-yr fixed rate seems likely. Another result of operation twist is bank stocks are being hammered. Annaly Capital Mgmt (symbol […] Read the rest of this entry »