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Hmmm.

Some interesting things…. The stock market downdraft from earlier this month caused the biggest quant fund blow up in history. And yet we were going to see another 3-day bloodbath last Thursday through today –but it was prevented by James Bullard’s comments early last Thursday morning. So far this year we’ve seen record setting advisor sentiment readings. We’ll revisit that this month and next. […] Read the rest of this entry »

Cryptocurrencies vs dollar vs gold

Yesterday morning I watched the NY Federal Reserve live presentation about a dire economic situation in Puerto Rico and the U.S.V.I. that is a result of hurricane Maria.  In the Q&A session someone asked about cryptocurrencies. Bill Dudley (NY Fed Prez & CEO) laughed and said cryptocurrencies were a terrible form of currency in that they fail to deliver a stable store of value. […] Read the rest of this entry »

Largest drop in mini Greedometer values ever

Before this week’s plummet, last week saw the largest 1-week drop in mini Greedometer values ever (20 years of data). The drop was twice as large as the next largest drop. All that out of a mere 3.8% drop over the course of a week. Hmmmm….  

Nothing to see here.

Some fun facts about the U.S. stock market over the past while…. But first this: The Greedometer (slow moving risk gauge) reached an all-time high last week. The mini Greedometer (medium speed risk gauge) reached all-time high 2 weeks ago (the week the SPX peaked). As you know, stock market price is NOT an input parameter to these algos.   There was an all-time […] Read the rest of this entry »

One year later: threats to cut taxes and spike the punch bowl.

A year ago yesterday was the anniversary of the Trump election victory. So Trump -and his anticipated unfunded 2018 tax cuts- are the reason we’re told the stock market is higher. That’s easy to understand, and it’s repeated/parroted often enough by the financial media. And now this… In less than 2 hours of Mr Trump being declared the victor, the futures market had to […] Read the rest of this entry »

Will America get safer yet?

Will we have the wisdom to follow the Australians towards improved gun safety laws after this terrible tragedy (Las Vegas mass shooting)? As you are doubtless aware, there was a mass shooting in Las Vegas last night wherein more than 50 people lost their lives.  From 1979 to 1996 Australia suffered more than a dozen terrible mass shootings culminating in the worst in 1996 […] Read the rest of this entry »

Bullard: not my job to burst bubbles

Jim Bullard (St Louis Fed Prez and one of the biggest policy doves/bubble blowers  around) gave a speech this morning. The upshot: It’s not my job to burst bubbles. Tech is to blame for the SPX bubble. Wait for things to look better before any more rate hikes. full chart deck here: link  

Markets are re-synchronizing (risk off)

Presented with no commentary…    

Will Fannie & Freddie get it right this time?

Fannie & Freddie were bailed out in 2008 because they were insolvent and were contributing to the housing crash. In an email conversation with someone that used to work at Freddie Mac, my contact mentioned “Even in mid 2007, they were talking about how great the credit spreads were and that meant huge opportunity. The two companies that owned over half the mortgages in […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short? Know this…

If you plan to profit from the collapse in risk assets this year (as I am), you better know this: Earnings matter slightly more than not at all. Plus they’re bullsh*t.  Companies will put off posting bad stuff until it must be posted. Note: Banks can apparently  mark asset prices to models once again –therein stalling the inconvenient necessity of having losses from the […] Read the rest of this entry »