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Category Archives: stock market crash in 2013

Welcome to the 2013 stock market top

Running out of gas. That’s how I’d describe the latest risk-on rally. I’ll go into this in more detail via examining several Greedometer current input values in this week’s newsletter. But when the market gets this far (nearly 150 points) above the 200-day exponential moving average -and this is somewhat rare- it runs out of gas.  (with thanks to investors intelligence for the data) […] Read the rest of this entry »

Acute Risk of Stock Market Collapse Initiating

The S&P500 was struggling to get through 1597 — having re-tested it 3 times over the past few weeks. The table was set for the market to begin collapsing if weak employment data came out yesterday.  Friday’s report changes little. The risk that has been building for the past 4 months remains acute. We discuss further in the paid portion of the Greedometer Newsletter […] Read the rest of this entry »

Queue the Euphoria. Here comes the crash.

Queue the euphoria. The S&P500 is probably going to re-test 1595 this week, and if Friday’s Q1 GDP estimate is north of 3.0%, the S&P500 may even break 1600 for a few minutes. Crack open the champaign. It’s time to sell whatever’s left of your stocks and other risk assets to the same folks that bore the brunt of losses the last time things […] Read the rest of this entry »

June Recession call — still in tact

This morning saw the latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index report –always of interest to me. The 3-month rolling average showed continued declines in activity on a national basis -as I’ve been predicting. By the end of July, we’ll have the June data. My forecast calls for a -3.5 running total for the 3-month moving average.  It was -2.42 when the US entered the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Advisor Sentiment : 1st leg down about to initiate?

The Advisor Sentiment indicator for last week probably achieved the same extreme level that was seen 1 week after the 2011 peak in the S&P500 (The data comes out on Tuesday next week –I’ll update this blog posting then.).  You may recall what happened next…. the S&P500 dropped nearly 20%, requiring Ben to bolt the training wheels back on with his 2011 announcement of […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Stock Market Crash of 2013-2014 is about to start

Because many are not able to read the Greedometer Newsletter (they are not paid subscribers)   http://www.greedometer.com/subscribers/newsletters/ –   I’m making this note publicly viewable via the blog. Last week saw the Greedometer rise to 6900rpm. Judging by the fact the 2011 crash began with a peak reading of 6700rpm, 6900rpm is high enough to get my attention. 7000rpm is all but inevitable this week. The […] Read the rest of this entry »

The inevitable stock market crash of 2013 – 2014

Inevitability. When I see a sequence of numbers like this: 42, 13, 4, 2, 1, 1 — I see inevitability.  These numbers correspond to the number of months between Greedometer® sequences.  A Greedometer sequence is a plot of values generated by the Greedometer algorithm (there is also one for the mini Greedometer algorithm). When a sequence initiates, the S&P500 is about to reach a […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer parameter at all-time high

One of the inputs to the Greedometer strategic algorithm is the Greedometer Put / Call ratio. Yesterday the reading registered one of the highest ever. Today will likely see the highest single day reading ever -unless there’s a pullback. Further, this week’s readings will likely be in the top 1% of weekly readings since 2004 (when I began capturing the data for this parameter). […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Top was in April.

  (Important) Housekeeping comments: 1. We’re approaching the date when we will combine 2 weekly email letters into 1. The new letter will contain a very brief summary and website link to facilitate login and access to the entire letter (economic news and data, analysis, the greedometers, and details on the specific investments we plan to buy / sell.) 2. An interactive greedometer gauge […] Read the rest of this entry »