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Category Archives: stock market crash 2015

Stock market crash 2015-2016 update

Last week’s Greedometer and mini Greedometer data is in and crunched. Last week’s Greedometer and mini Greedometer value was noticeably lower than I estimated it would be. Result: the crash will be slightly faster than I was modeling /expecting. The crash launch point has been steadily pushed out from the week of April 24th to May 22nd, to July 17th.   A steady flow […] Read the rest of this entry »

Blood in the streets. But not for long. Greedometers nailed it.

Here’s what the SPX looked like when the cash SPX was at its worst (close to it) this morning.  Collectively, you’ll probably never see an uglier overall picture from the technicals as you see here.  This is a chart for textbooks (and history books).     The good news is we were prevented from seeing something even uglier. SPX futures were frozen for the […] Read the rest of this entry »

There will be pain.

  Leverage is how some investment managers earn their keep since leveraged Beta can appear like Alpha.  It’s a wonderful thing.  Until it’s not.  A leveraged investment pro will be susceptible to a record that looks like this: win a lot, win a lot, win a lot….. lose it all.  That’s the obvious lesson from the S&P500 over the past 15 years –as evidenced […] Read the rest of this entry »

That 2007 feeling.

The Greedometers began warning of a stock market crash in early January 2007. Yet the final SPX peak did not show up until October. Food for thought. (go ahead, look at the charts here) The current sequence (the 9th) is steeper and has higher readings than the one from 2007-09 (the 2nd).  Therefore a larger and faster drop is going to happen. I’m not […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Holy Grail

If you work in the investment business, you are motivated to make money for your clients and to not lose money — to pursue the holy grail. Depending on your toolset, your risk tolerance, and the risk tolerance of your clients, your ability to make returns and not lose money will vary.  Occasionally, there are periods when there will be a very broad range […] Read the rest of this entry »

To buy the dip or not

The S&P500 has been parked above the 200-day moving average (200dma) for 20 months in a row. Amazing. The last time something similar happened was an 18-month stretch in January 1995 – July 1996, courtesy of the tech bubble. At this point in time, it would merely take a 7.4% dip to visit the 200dma (1973 to 1834). We have not seen a dip […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Stock Market Crash 2014. Part 2

  Part 2: Proof the stock market is crashing now. In part 1, I showed why you should expect the U.S. stock market to begin crashing now (mid-June 2014). In this part, I provide proof from the Greedometer and mini Greedometer that it (the S&P500) peaked on Monday June 9th at 1955 and has initiated an historic crash. (even though the market is still […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Stock Market Crash 2014. Part 1.

  Part 1:  Why the U.S. stock market should crash now   1. The time between Greedometer sequences. Greedometer data goes back to January 1999 (and mini Greedometer data to 2004). The 2000-2003 Greedometer sequence (and 47% drop in the S&P500) was the first in a series of sequences — all of them stopped by fiscal and monetary policy goodies that did nothing to […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Stock Market Crash is here.

The article will be in 2 parts. Part 1:  Why the stock market should crash now.  This will be posted later today. Part 2:  Compelling evidence the stock market began crashing this week.  This will be posted on the weekend.  I will include Greedometer and mini Greedometer data to make the point.  The intent is to provide something close to proof the U.S. stock market […] Read the rest of this entry »

Stock market crash now initiating.

A very important blog post is coming. It will clearly show: The largest stock market crash since 1929 began 3 days ago (less than 1% ago on the S&P500). The one thing that can pause or slow -not stop- this collapse. That the U.S. stock market has been repeatedly dodging an axe since the 2000-2003 crash. The crashes have not been random, but have […] Read the rest of this entry »