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Category Archives: stock market crash 2014

Secular Market Top. Crash initiates next week.

  They say no one rings a bell at a stock market top (before it crashes).  Consider the Greedometer to be ringing the proverbial bell.  Per previous comments, the SPX had to re-test 1850 within 1%.  Done.  The mini Greedometer took it a step further indicating the SPX would set a new secular peak last week, this week, or both.  With the SPX setting […] Read the rest of this entry »

Crash initiation does not need obvious catalyst

I am frequently asked what the catalyst for a crash might be. The answer is — it does not matter. Once sufficiently high amounts of risk are apparent, the slightest shock will initiate the crash. Whatever happens to “disappoint” will be given the blame. Take a look back at August 2000, October 2007, April 2010, July 2011, May 2012, October 2012, May 2013, and […] Read the rest of this entry »

Limited Time Offer: Look at Greedometers

This chart explains why the S&P500 will re-test the 1850 level (within 1%) in mid-late February, then begin a 1-1.5 year crash that will eliminate 65-70% from the index (hello 600s again).  The chart is pulled from this week’s Greedometer newsletter (from the mini Greedometer section). Until March 1st, view the Greedometer and mini Greedometer newsletter data from January 28th through February 28th for […] Read the rest of this entry »

Relax. This crash is not like 1929. It’s like 2007-2009 at twice the speed.

The financial blogosphere is debating the similarities of the Dow over the past couple months (or so) with a point early in the 1929 crash. I find myself agreeing with the long-always-and-only folks (at least I assume most of them are long US stocks always and only). First off, 2 months is not much to go on. Second the % price moves are not […] Read the rest of this entry »

Ha! What crash!… said the long-only and always talking head

The SPX managed to bounce back to the 50-day moving average for a gain this week. Doubtless the long-only and always talking heads will be mocking those with a bearish view — like me! Well let’s set the record straight.  On Tuesday I posted this graph in the advanced access section of the Greedometer Newsletter ($800/year subscription). Notice it shows a bounce in the […] Read the rest of this entry »

1929, 1987, 2013

  1929, 1987, and 2013 are the only years in the past century that have seen S&P500 y-o-y real earnings growth of zero (or very nearly) while also seeing a 20%+ market gain.  FYI: 2013 sees negative real y-o-y S&P500 earnings growth when share buy-backs are factored. Hard to stop printing money when you know this. Hard to continue printing too.  Overly expansionist monetary policy fueled the 1987 […] Read the rest of this entry »

ECB will let stock markets crash in 2014

  I read in this morning’s FT, that banking regulators in Europe are essentially saying “The banking system will be solvent very soon. We mean it this time.“.   Granted, we heard the European banking system was fine shortly before some epic bank implosions and after bogus bank stress tests over the past few years.  Could it be this time is different?   (link to […] Read the rest of this entry »

June Recession call — still in tact

This morning saw the latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index report –always of interest to me. The 3-month rolling average showed continued declines in activity on a national basis -as I’ve been predicting. By the end of July, we’ll have the June data. My forecast calls for a -3.5 running total for the 3-month moving average.  It was -2.42 when the US entered the […] Read the rest of this entry »