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Category Archives: Stock Market Crash

U.S. stock market circuit breaker not hit today.

The October 19 1987 crash saw the Dow shed 22% (pretty much the same for the SPX). As a result of this crash, the Reagan White House asked for a team to be assembled to study the problem and put in place measures to stop severe crashes from happening again. Investopedia has a decent summary here. To the best of my knowledge, U.S. stock […] Read the rest of this entry »

Compare pre-crash 2007 to now with Greedometers (a free look)

I present a video showing the current Greedometer sequence, mini Greedometer sequence and the resulting S&P500 forecast. I also present an estimate of when & what the Fed will do to stop/slow this crash. Among other things, this video will make it clear that you could have known in October 2007 that a crash was initiating. The S&P500 forecast I present in the video […] Read the rest of this entry »

Interesting FT video re US market bubble

  Today’s FT Short View has an interesting video about frothy stock markets.

This really bothers me (the week before the “flash crash”)

Yesterday evening, the dinner table discussion ended-up being focussed on the 2010 flash crash. Here’s what the S&P500 looked like in early 2010. Again, this is the period up to the flash crash (the week prior is included).  Not a lot to be deeply concerned about. The week prior to the flash crash saw the S&P500 pull-back 2.5%. Not nothing. But not exactly noteworthy. […] Read the rest of this entry »

You are programmed to fail

I thought I’d write something different. This article walks through the 2007-2009 period and provides commentary from a fictional retail investor. See how much of this sounds familiar to you…. First, here’s where we’re going:   Off we go….   Hey, we’re off to a good start this year. Great!   They say we should “buy the dips”, so buy I will. (what you […] Read the rest of this entry »

Some air being let out today

An excerpt from this week’s Greedometer Newsletter…. In addition to the U.S. stock market being more fraught with risk that in 2000 and 2007, there’s a bit of a 1997-1998 feel to the big picture. By that I’m referring to emerging market stresses building up. In 1997-98 it was a spreading Asian currency crisis that clocked the U.S. stock market for its largest, second […] Read the rest of this entry »

June Recession call — still in tact

This morning saw the latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index report –always of interest to me. The 3-month rolling average showed continued declines in activity on a national basis -as I’ve been predicting. By the end of July, we’ll have the June data. My forecast calls for a -3.5 running total for the 3-month moving average.  It was -2.42 when the US entered the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer gauge on verge of breaking

In a complete non-ratification of stock market readings, the Greedometer strategic risk gauge is on the verge of breaking (exceeding its 8000rpm limit). Reminder: stock market price is not an input parameter to the gauge. For reference purposes, over the past 14+ years of data: A Greedometer peak reading of 7700rpm for 6 weeks straight in late May- early July 2007.  S&P500 peaked in […] Read the rest of this entry »

This Guy Has it Right Too

  Without putting words in the mouth of Marc Faber and Nouriel Roubini, it seems their broad view of the US economy and US stock market prospects are very similar – very similar to mine as well. Nouriel Roubini was interviewed on CNBC this morning. Notable quotes: “These taxes, taxes for the rich are going to significantly reduce disposable income and retail sales have been […] Read the rest of this entry »

This guy has it right

A year ago I had the pleasure of meeting Marc Faber, albeit briefly. He was a speaker at a very well run conference I was attending.  I see he’s on CNBC again today proclaiming the current rally will end badly.  The Greedometers support that conclusion (and they go a lot further in terms of characterizing the timing and scale, but let’s no go there). […] Read the rest of this entry »