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Category Archives: share buybacks

Buybacks and insider trading update

Factset published Q4 2014 S&P500 buyback data this morning. At $125.8B it was exactly where I forecast (I estimated $125B).  I’m estimating share buybacks will soar to $160B in Q1 and $170B in Q2 — to be some of the highest buybacks ever. Here’s the updated chart for S&P500 share buybacks, insider trading, and the SPX.   While corporate managers desperately keep wildly overinflated […] Read the rest of this entry »

Update: insider selling + buybacks = stock market top

Factset provided their Q2 share buyback data this morning, so here’s an update…. Factset indicated Q2 buybacks dropped noticeably.  Given that share buybacks have been the main driver of S&P500 earnings per share growth over the past 2-3 years (hello P/E expansion!), a continued drop in buybacks would likely now begin to have a detrimental  impact on reported eps growth.  Share buybacks are going […] Read the rest of this entry »

Insider selling + share buybacks: prelude

I like it when things’s correlate….   This chart will be updated in the next 2 weeks.    

Chart Update: Share Buybacks, Insider Selling, S&P500.

Here’s an update to my chart on share buybacks, insider selling, and the S&P500. Chart data courtesy of Vickers, Factset, and yours truly. Some estimating has been done for Q3 & Q4 (obviously). See if you see a pattern….     Nope.  Nothing to see here….    

Chart Update: insider selling, share buybacks, market

Here’s an update to one of my favorite correlations: insider selling (sell high), share buybacks (buy high), S&P500 peaks.   There’s some estimating being done with the 2014 data of course.    

Share Buyback data updated: nearing pre-crash 2007 record

Q1 saw $154.5B in share buybacks. This has only been topped twice — Q2 & Q3 2007 — the peak of the last major bubble. Strip-out share buybacks and there was no earrings growth in Q1 2014 vs Q1 2013. Indeed there has been virtually no earnings growth for the past 2.5 years — when adjusted for share buybacks. If you take a 2-quarter […] Read the rest of this entry »