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Category Archives: QE

Why the Fed won’t do QE again

Having completed several rounds of extreme/desperate monetary policy actions (let’s face it, printing $4T in new money is desperate), the Fed will likely not launch another round of QE unless the sky is falling — and even then it will be a hard sell.  Each round of policy steroids inflated /expanded a stock market bubble -to various levels of success.  Inflation has been slow to […] Read the rest of this entry »

Ben: Channel your inner Mario

  It’s September 18 2013. You find yourself at the helm of what has become the world’s most powerful institution: The United States Federal Reserve. Through a series of well orchestrated moves earlier in the year, you’ve managed to gradually set the expectation that you’ll soon begin reducing monetary policy support known as QE3. The good news is the U.S. stock market (your obsession, […] Read the rest of this entry »

QE continues to “help” the economy

It is widely understood that the Fed has been doing the heavy lifting to keep the U.S. economy on life support over the past 5 years. Quantitative Easing (QE) and Operation Twist (OT) have been key monetary policy tools. Interestingly, from the point where there’s a whiff of more Fed help to the point where it is near ending, US Treasury yields rise – […] Read the rest of this entry »

Why QE4 will fail

(this posting may also be found in the publicly-viewable portion of the Greedometer Subscriber Newsletter)   The Fed turbo-charged the printing press yesterday, turning QE3 into QE4. Yet the stock market closed flat on the day -in fact it sold off after an initial sugar rush rally. Why no party?  Perhaps because despite being more open ended (no calendar end date), it is a […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Top was in April.

  (Important) Housekeeping comments: 1. We’re approaching the date when we will combine 2 weekly email letters into 1. The new letter will contain a very brief summary and website link to facilitate login and access to the entire letter (economic news and data, analysis, the greedometers, and details on the specific investments we plan to buy / sell.) 2. An interactive greedometer gauge […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories April 7 2012

Since the beginning of the year, we’ve been watching the latest Fed -and now also ECB induced- bubble inflate. I’ve been trying to discern (with the aid of the greedometers) whether April or July will be a secular stock market peak from which another 50-60% collapse initiates. Granted the Fed and ECB will be forced to come to the rescue in August, but what […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories March 3 2012

Bailouts spreading The US financial system was on the front line of news stories in 2008 & 2009. Since then, it has quietly repaired and rebuilt itself. More wealth, more debt, and hence more risk is now concentrated in even fewer and larger banks as a result. In the short run there was and is no other way. But eventually the mega banks will […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories January 28 2012

In the US: •The Fed announced it plans to leave short term interest rates in the current 0 – 0.25% range until late in 2014. And an explicit 2% inflation target was set. •Bond markets are interpreting the news something along these lines: the economy is sufficiently weak and likely to remain that way for several years. So the Fed is going to commit […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories Jan 21 2012

Big Picture: Warning: The mini greedometer (tactical risk indicator) is displaying readings previously only seen when the S&P500 was within 5% of a secular (long term) top. The greedometer (strategic risk indicator) is approaching dangerous risk levels as well. There is very little upside and a great deal of downside to risk assets (stocks, junk bonds, commodities, REITs) at this time. A much more […] Read the rest of this entry »

Weekly Short Economic Stories

The stupidest thing I’ve read in a while:  Barney Frank intends to remove the voting rights of regional Federal Reserve Presidents on the rate-setting FOMC board and hand their voting privileges to White House appointees. For decades, the Fed has done a masterful job at stopping the US economy from feeling the economic pain both warranted and necessary from unwise and myopic fiscal policy.  […] Read the rest of this entry »