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Category Archives: PIIGS

Greek Electoral Math

There are 300 seats in the Greek Parliament. You need a majority (150+) to govern. If your party can’t win an election with an outright majority, you can form a coalition with other parties.  There are 7 political parties in Greece, so coalition parliaments happen a lot. With today’s election result, it looks like we’re likely to see the New Democracy Party (ND) win […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories May 19 2012

  What happens if the VIX spikes, profit margins drop, and the S&P500 adjusted P/E drops? Find out. Try the interactive greedometer here. Please tell your friends. The more people understand the mechanics behind the view that the economy is about to contract like it did in 2008 – 2009, the more they’ll take defensive action. (Paradox of thrift be dammed! Let someone else […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Top was in April.

  (Important) Housekeeping comments: 1. We’re approaching the date when we will combine 2 weekly email letters into 1. The new letter will contain a very brief summary and website link to facilitate login and access to the entire letter (economic news and data, analysis, the greedometers, and details on the specific investments we plan to buy / sell.) 2. An interactive greedometer gauge […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Top Cometh…

  The view presented by the greedometers still indicate April is the top for risk assets and that the economic slowdown of 2012 – 2013 began earlier this year. The US economy will probably slow to the point where it stalls completely and falls back into recession in the current quarter. The book (Greedometer. Dow 5000. Why nobody sees it coming.) will go into […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories April 14 2012

Here in the US: From a 40,000ft view, the US economy seems to be slowing from an anemic pace to flat. I’m sticking with an estimate of 1.5 – 2% GDP growth rate for Q1, but 2Q is going to be hard pressed to see any growth at all. Indeed, I’m anticipating an increase in the speed of slowing as we go through the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories April 7 2012

Since the beginning of the year, we’ve been watching the latest Fed -and now also ECB induced- bubble inflate. I’ve been trying to discern (with the aid of the greedometers) whether April or July will be a secular stock market peak from which another 50-60% collapse initiates. Granted the Fed and ECB will be forced to come to the rescue in August, but what […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories March 31 2012

In the US: Mr. Bernanke got the week going with a speech before markets opened on Monday. His comments were interpreted as a sign that more dollar printing would be on the way (hello QE3!). Mind you, there was no explicit commitment. In so doing, Mr. Bernanke is continuing to paint the Fed into a corner and further cementing the reliance of equity markets […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories March 10 2012

The greedometers are increasingly suggesting that we’re currently in the warm-up act a few months before a secular top in risk assets. (More in the private client letter on Wednesday.) In addition, talk about low trading volume. Wow! Watching Friday’s equity markets, you would have thought two guys were buying and selling. When only 300M S&P500 company shares have traded by 3pm, you know […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories March 3 2012

Bailouts spreading The US financial system was on the front line of news stories in 2008 & 2009. Since then, it has quietly repaired and rebuilt itself. More wealth, more debt, and hence more risk is now concentrated in even fewer and larger banks as a result. In the short run there was and is no other way. But eventually the mega banks will […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories Feb 17 2012

In the US: •For years I have commented that S&P500 profit margin is one of the best mean reverting series of economic data there is. The final stock market peaks of 2000 & 2007 coincided with turning points when profit margins began retreating from their peaks. •Notice -like all mean reverting series- the larger the area above the average (green area), the larger the […] Read the rest of this entry »