Category Archives: market hype
An update…. SPX: Long Bond: USD/JPY: USD/CNH: Something’s gotta give….
Guess which market is out of touch? US Tbond: USD/JPY: and the SPX: Which market catches up to which? Spoiler alert: the equity market is always last to recognize a bubble.
Most of you have been following this site for years. You know the cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) is insightful but not terribly useful for market timing / trading. Because it remains of some use, it is one of ten input parameters to the strategic Greedometer algo (#3 in the input list to your left). For those playing along at home, with the SPX now […] Read the rest of this entry
Good morning. Happy New Year! This marks the beginning of the 19th year of Greedometer data and 13th year of my using the system. Granted, the system has evolved but little has changed in the past couple years. The Greedometer data suggests the U.S. economy has been struggling with the same secular economic problems. Eighteen years later I look around and see these […] Read the rest of this entry
The SPX has opened up a gap above industrial production -the economy- that is now exactly twice the previous largest spread. These two data streams spend most of the time being close to one another. So either the economy is about to see its strongest growth in many years (while the dollar is extremely high in price and climbing higher thanks to rate hikes) […] Read the rest of this entry
I don’t get this. I checked CNBC’s website at 9:20am and saw this… Yet here’s what SPX futures were doing: I’m pretty good at math. Last I checked 1997 to 1999 was lower than 2002 (where spx futures were at 8:30am when the BEA’s GDP report was released.
They say the third time’s the charm. The pending stock market crash will be the third large crash in recent memory (since year 2000). I submit there were actually 8 stock market crash initiations going back to the 2000 – 2003 crash. We are about to initiate the 9th this week. All but 2 were stopped sufficiently early by new monetary policy goodies that […] Read the rest of this entry
I keep forgetting to post stuff that’s happy…. I am after all long & loud right now. The forward P/E on the S&P500 is now a fairly reasonable 15. No need for concern. Nothing to see here. Earnings and revenue growth in Q3 earnings season are strong (as expected). S&P500 profit margins using as-reported earnings are continuing to set records. Never mind: […] Read the rest of this entry
The financial media have always got to supply a reason for the stock market to climb or drop. Sometimes their views are quite silly. There’s a headline on CNBC’s website saying stock market is dropping this afternoon because of a shooting in Ottawa Canada (my home town, by the way). This reason/ excuse is ridiculous. A more likely reason (excuse) would be that the […] Read the rest of this entry
With the S&P500 now back up to the 1920s, let’s take a deep breath. To many people’s surprise (not mine since I have the largest tactical long position ever on the S&P500), the market has come roaring back from last week’s frightful drop. At one point the S&P500 was down 9.9% from its flirt with 2020 to last week’s flirt with 1820. We’re half […] Read the rest of this entry