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Category Archives: Investment Calls

Fund Management: $T Opportunity coming

  First, the punchline:  $40-50T is going to evaporate from global equities over the next 12-18 months (the end date depends on effectiveness of central bank ammunition that is yet to be deployed). FYI we’re still down $10T from the peak in January 2018.  The crash that will unfold in 2019-2020 is going to introduce a significant opportunity for investment strategies that profit (or […] Read the rest of this entry »

What air pocket?

  The Greedometers suggested the SPX would roll over and soon initiate a crash five weeks ago –when Janet was backing away from a rate hike (unless there was another CB sugar bomb).  With the BREXIT warp up act out of the way, 1.5 weeks ago I posted publicly that the SPX would see an air pocket very soon (unless there was another sizable […] Read the rest of this entry »

SPX Crash Launch Point this week-next

As you should expect, CB actions have continued to warp Greedometer 10 sequence (& mini Greedometer 10 sequence) flatter — not yet to the point where it is as slow as was seen in 2007-2009 (Greedometer sequence 2). But we’re getting there. Currently the pace of this sequence is pretty much midway between that seen in 2007-2009 and the one from 2011 (sequence 4). […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Dimon Rally

I’m very long the SPX as of yesterday. (and you thought I was always short?  tsk tsk…)  My old friend Jamie Dimon is coming to the rescue with a $26M buy in JPM stock. Thanks Jamie. Beer’s on me….    

Color me Bullish

Yup. I’m bullish.  How can you not be when you look at this chart? Once 2.87 was taken out an hour or so ago, fuel was added to the fire.  Don’t be surprised to see 2.65-2.7 on Friday or Tuesday. Oh, you thought I meant bullish on stocks.  Nope.  Not yet. Still in a huge SPX short. Off to my best year start ever […] Read the rest of this entry »

2011 Deja Vu

When was the last time the SPX was flirting with a 20% drop –as it likely will be in the next 1-2 weeks? Answer: August 2011. Before that happened, I put this ad in the Wall St Journal on July 25th 2011. Let’s rewind to April & May 2011.  I tried every news organization that mattered (and some that didn’t) to run a story […] Read the rest of this entry »

Crash? What crash?

The last time the Greedometer and mini Greedometer were showing similar readings to what they were 1 week ago (before last week’s stock market drop) was the week ending August 14 2015.  On Aug 18 2015 at 9:30am I posted this warning:  here The SPX was in free fall for 2 weeks and had to be stopped by NY Fed Prez Dudley. Granted we […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer + Swissie + IMF = supreme risk

This morning’s FT has two articles I find interesting. One is about the Swiss being the first country to issue a 10yr sovereign bond with a negative yield (guaranteed loss for 10 years). Yes, the ECB’s QE program gets credit for this bizarre event. However, ignoring the implications of this phenomenon would be unwise. Usually when safe haven assets (like the 10yr swissie) are […] Read the rest of this entry »


As you’ll see from the DMT letter (when you sign up for a trial next week), I indicated in the Monday morning and Tuesday morning letter I was looking to sell the SPX short when the cash SPX dropped to the 1970s-1980s — and I expected that on Monday-Tuesday.  I  sold it around 1980 on Tuesday —- just in time to get out of […] Read the rest of this entry »

Another nice day

The SPX is up 6.7% year to date and I suspect I am too. I won’t know for sure until I run some practice mgmt reports tomorrow morning (based on todays closing data).   OK, if you owned the SPX all year you also picked up a 2% dividend. But you also had to ride a roller coaster.  I’m not a fan of roller coaster […] Read the rest of this entry »