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Category Archives: GDP

Q4 GDP slowing

This is a cut/paste from the Greedometer newsletter 2 days ago…     This morning the BEA provided its second estimate of Q3 real GDP growth. It was increased from 3.5% to 3.9%.  I was expecting it to remain largely the same at 3.4-3.6%.  The BEA’s third estimate will be released late next month and likely be raised slightly more or stay the same. […] Read the rest of this entry »

Europe GDP bounce. Translation: ECB QE pushed.

This morning’s headline is topped with a report that Europe’s GDP bounced in Q3. It was not much of a bounce mind you. Q3 is said to have grown .2% (0.8% annualized pace) over  a flat (zero growth) Q2.  Germany and France avoided contraction, but Italy did not. Upshot: No new ECB monetary policy candy (full QE) will be announced at the December 4th […] Read the rest of this entry »

Q1 2014 GDP: 3rd kick

Wow.  -2.96% annualized real GDP growth -ahem- contraction in Q1. Let’s just call it -3% to keep it simple. This is out of the usual for the BEA. (the usual theme is sandbag the 2nd estimate, exceed that low-balled estimate with the 3rd try, then wait a few years and dramatically lower the GDP growth rate when it won’t scare anyone)  Apparently the BEA […] Read the rest of this entry »

Q1 GDP revision

To no surprise, the BEA lowered their Q1 GDP growth estimate from +0.1% to – 1.0%.  The  lowering was no surprise, but the amount of drop was a little surprising.  The BEA maintains that their 3rd estimate is the one to put weight behind. To this end, don’t be surprised to see the 3rd estimate miraculously revised higher (at the end of June) — […] Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s what the BEA guessed about Q1 GDP in 2011 (a wild overestimate)

Since the Greedometer (& mini Greedometer) sequence of 2014 is resembling that of 2011, I thought it would be helpful to post the BEA’s estimates for Q1 GDP in 2011  –and their latest estimate (3 years later –when no one cares): Wow!   They overestimated Q1 GDP by a whopping 3.1% on their first estimate. As terrible as that was, their more complete data-driven […] Read the rest of this entry »

Another BEA GDP fudge

The BEA announced its 3rd estimate of Q4 2013 GDP growth an hour ago. As I expected, the GDP growth rate was increased from 2.4% –its 2nd estimate.  For those keeping score at home, BEA estimates have been: 1st:  +3.2% 2nd: +2.4% 3rd: +2.6% I have made a thorough study of BEA Q3 GDP reports over the past 14 years. (I’ll get around to […] Read the rest of this entry »

Is the economy really growing at 3%?

I have previously documented the BEA’s abysmal job in estimating Q3 GDP over the past 14 years (here’s a link).  It turns out the BEA’s wildly overstated estimates extend to all quarters.  This short story provides the BEA’s estimates of 2008 GDP at several points in time.  First, here’s what the BEA now says about 2008 GDP: Q1  -2.7%,  Q2 +2%,  Q3 -2%, Q4 […] Read the rest of this entry »

Artificially high GDP estimate helps Fed exit QE

The BEA raised its estimate of Q3 GDP to 4.1% this morning. Including this third estimate, here’s a look back at the past 14 years of BEA data (for Q3 estimates).  Each year shows the first, second, third estimates, and the most recent –typically a few years after the fact. The 4th data point in each year saw GDP lowered vs the 1st estimate […] Read the rest of this entry »

Are GDP estimates manipulated? It appears so.

The BEA raised its estimate of Q3 GDP from 2.8% to 3.6% this morning. The past 14 years of data suggests this rise in GDP estimate means nothing. Here’s a chart showing the previous 14 years of Q3 GDP estimates courtesy of the BEA.  What’s shown are the first, second, third estimates, and the most recent –typically a few years after the fact. In […] Read the rest of this entry »

An extremely powerful and manipulative cheerleader (Q3 2013 GDP growth was not +2.8%)

Today’s 2.8% real GDP growth estimate from the BEA is absolutely meaningless. That fact did not stop the stock market from selling-off because of fears the Fed may take the QE3 punch bowl away.  As much as I firmly believe the Fed should do exactly that, today’s BEA estimate of GDP was not a reason to expect QE3 to be taken away.  (Don’t worry, […] Read the rest of this entry »