Category Archives: Employment / Unemployment
I don’t care about tomorrow’s much anticipated BLS jobs report. It could blow the doors off with a +300K number or disappoint with a +200K number. I also don’t care where the S&P500 reaches during the day or where it finishes the day/week. The Greedometer sequence is sufficiently mature that a major new dose of monetary policy candy is going to be required to […] Read the rest of this entry
The BLS Household Survey report showed 840,000 new part time jobs last month. That’s huge. This helps explain the divergence between an expected low jobs number (say 160,000-180,000), and what was reported (288,000). These 840,000 new part time jobs likely didn’t earn enough to pay much in payroll tax.
The BLS released its June employment report. The headline: 288,000 new jobs, U3 rate drops to 6.1%. A 288,000 new jobs number does not align well at all with U.S. Treasury payroll receipts data. Payroll receipts for June were markedly lower than they were for May. Were they all at such low pay rates that very little income tax was withheld?
Headline: U3 claims dropped from 6.7% to 6.6%. 113,00 new jobs created. The more inclusive U6 rate dropped to 12.7%. The cold weather (coming down from Canada) in January is being blamed for the weak job creation. Who knew it would be cold in January? By the way, Canada’s economy generated nearly 30K new jobs in January. This would translate to approx 270K new jobs […] Read the rest of this entry
Headline: 7.3% unemployment (U3 rate), 204,000 jobs added. Expected: 7.3% unemployment, closer to 100,000 jobs added. Result: U.S. equity futures are soft before the open. What’s going on? Same as yesterday: good economic news is bad because it means the Fed may begin taking the punch bowl away (QE taper). A slightly deeper dig though today’s BLS employment report: Labor Participation rate: 62.8%. The […] Read the rest of this entry
The number of Americans who have jobs in 2013 is about the same as in 2000, yet the population has grown from 281 million to 311 million. Before the last recession, the employment / population ratio was 62.7%. Somewhere along the way nearly 18.8M jobs did not materialize over the past 13 years. Are there really 12M unemployed, or are there 31M? It’s […] Read the rest of this entry
Since the beginning of the year, we’ve been watching the latest Fed -and now also ECB induced- bubble inflate. I’ve been trying to discern (with the aid of the greedometers) whether April or July will be a secular stock market peak from which another 50-60% collapse initiates. Granted the Fed and ECB will be forced to come to the rescue in August, but what […] Read the rest of this entry
In the US: Mr. Bernanke got the week going with a speech before markets opened on Monday. His comments were interpreted as a sign that more dollar printing would be on the way (hello QE3!). Mind you, there was no explicit commitment. In so doing, Mr. Bernanke is continuing to paint the Fed into a corner and further cementing the reliance of equity markets […] Read the rest of this entry
In the US: Weekly initial unemployment claims dropped under 350,000 for the first time in four years. Good. Now if we could find jobs for the 6-7 million others that have lost jobs and fallen out of the UI system, that would be nice. The latest housing data has been a mixed bag. House prices are stabilizing, but sales volumes remain low. And this […] Read the rest of this entry