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Category Archives: Dow 5000 in 2013

I smell a rat.

  Point 1: A wave of selling in the last minute. Friday’s US stock market (S&P500) action saw 230m shares trade in the final minute. For perspective, that was 40% of the day’s trades — in the final minute. Other than the first and last minute, the day averaged approximately 800K trades/minute. It is all the more interesting when a large volume of trades cause […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Top was in April.

  (Important) Housekeeping comments: 1. We’re approaching the date when we will combine 2 weekly email letters into 1. The new letter will contain a very brief summary and website link to facilitate login and access to the entire letter (economic news and data, analysis, the greedometers, and details on the specific investments we plan to buy / sell.) 2. An interactive greedometer gauge […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Top Cometh…

  The view presented by the greedometers still indicate April is the top for risk assets and that the economic slowdown of 2012 – 2013 began earlier this year. The US economy will probably slow to the point where it stalls completely and falls back into recession in the current quarter. The book (Greedometer. Dow 5000. Why nobody sees it coming.) will go into […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories April 21 2012

  Another very interesting week from the greedometers. It is increasingly looking like we’re within 2 weeks of a secular (long term) top in risk asset prices. Much more details in the private client letter on Wednesday. Speaking of which, next month will see further progress in terms of converging the 2 weekly letters into 1, and in separating the content displayed in client letters […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories April 14 2012

Here in the US: From a 40,000ft view, the US economy seems to be slowing from an anemic pace to flat. I’m sticking with an estimate of 1.5 – 2% GDP growth rate for Q1, but 2Q is going to be hard pressed to see any growth at all. Indeed, I’m anticipating an increase in the speed of slowing as we go through the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories April 7 2012

Since the beginning of the year, we’ve been watching the latest Fed -and now also ECB induced- bubble inflate. I’ve been trying to discern (with the aid of the greedometers) whether April or July will be a secular stock market peak from which another 50-60% collapse initiates. Granted the Fed and ECB will be forced to come to the rescue in August, but what […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories March 10 2012

The greedometers are increasingly suggesting that we’re currently in the warm-up act a few months before a secular top in risk assets. (More in the private client letter on Wednesday.) In addition, talk about low trading volume. Wow! Watching Friday’s equity markets, you would have thought two guys were buying and selling. When only 300M S&P500 company shares have traded by 3pm, you know […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories Feb 11 2012

  In the US: The latest economic false dawn resembles last year’s false dawn -and that of 2010- in so many ways: Stock markets are up — where they were in 2011, and within range of  the 2007 and 2000 levels.  Pundits in 2011 were forecasting 3-4% GDP growth. What we ended up with was annualized growth rates of 0.4% growth in Q1 2011 and 1.6% […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories Jan 21 2012

Big Picture: Warning: The mini greedometer (tactical risk indicator) is displaying readings previously only seen when the S&P500 was within 5% of a secular (long term) top. The greedometer (strategic risk indicator) is approaching dangerous risk levels as well. There is very little upside and a great deal of downside to risk assets (stocks, junk bonds, commodities, REITs) at this time. A much more […] Read the rest of this entry »

Year End Letter 2011 (& 2012 Forecast)

Strategic Indicator:  Greedometer Last week, the greedometer registered 5400 rpm, a respectable but not unexpected jump from the previous week 4800rpm. And with that, we have the end of the year-end rise in the greedometer.  The 2011 set of greedometer readings resemble that of 2007. Indeed, both years saw the last or second to last week finish with a 5400rpm reading. Uncanny.  And foreboding.   (the […] Read the rest of this entry »