Category Archives: CFNAI
The Chicago Fed CFNAI data for April was posted. If there are no more marvelous Trump tax cut tweets and Fed sugar bombs, the CFNAI 3mo avg will likely drop to -2.7 or lower in September. The U.S. economy would definitely be in recession then. Mind you the Commerce Department and Fed would not publicly state that they see a recession until at least […] Read the rest of this entry
Here’s what the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3mo rolling avg looks like in a trailing time series…. Mr Dudley (NY Fed Prez), someone’s going to need to spike the punch bowl again by July-Aug. This forecast is based on the Greedometers, not the CFNAI. That said, we should expect a rolling 12mo sum of the 3mo avg of CFNAI to drop to […] Read the rest of this entry
The latest Chicago Fed data shows the U.S. economy growing but approaching stall speed over the past year. With no new central bank sugar bombs and no new Trump tweets about upcoming unfunded tax cuts, the U.S. economy will fall into recession in Q2. I’m betting someone will keep the party going a little longer, stalling the recession entry until Q3. For reference purposes, […] Read the rest of this entry
The Chicago Fed’s CFNAI is a decent proxy for GDP growth. It has been trending downwards. I suspect the CFNAI will signal a U.S. recession in March. For what it’s worth, I suspect the ECRI WLI will also signal recession in March with a -8 print.
As you all know, the CFNAI (Chicago Fed National Activity Index) is one of many interesting data streams worth following. Here’s the update. I suspect the U.S. economy is 2-3 months from entering recession. Time for the ECRI WLI to stall and begin rolling over (we’ll see this Friday morning).
The Chicago Fed CFNAI was posted earlier this morning. The August reading saw a detonation to -0.4. The more useful 3mo avg was essentially flat (0.1). Here’s my estimate of what comes next (to the 3mo avg) if there is no new central bank candy….
The Chicago Fed released its latest National Activity Index this morning. The 3-month average showed a gain in September (and a very large gain for the single month of September). Here’s my forecast…. For reference purposes, the CFNAI heading into the previous 2 recessions…
The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) for October was released a few minutes ago. The 3mo-avg of the CFNAI is very heavily correlated with GDP growth. Here’s a chart…. The October 3mo-avg reading poked its head above water after 7 straight months of negative readings. Seven straight readings in the 3mo CFNAI almost never happens unless the economy is in recession. According […] Read the rest of this entry