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Category Archives: central bank liquidity pumping

What markets need is more terrorism, political unrest, and Trump

Over the past year we’ve seen 4 instances where markets were shut off or throttling mechanisms were otherwise used — followed by someone with monumentally deep pockets (BoJ and other central banks?) jamming the market higher. First, the November 2015 Paris terror attack. The stock market was dropping for a couple weeks leading into the terror attack.  Central banks said they would deploy emergency […] Read the rest of this entry »

Safe markets

Presented with the least amount of commentary…. The extent to which the Fed has been extending liquidity life lines… (OK, this chart shows Fed sopping up liquidity. There’s no FRED database dataset showing the liquidity extended before it was mopped up. Look at the large spike in liquidity being mopped up in Sept-Oct 2008 — the Global Financial Crisis.  The Fed/this chart on its own […] Read the rest of this entry »

Nothing to see here (but a 15% VIX smash)

Heading into the BLS report at 8:30am someone with deep pockets (probably owns a currency printing press) decimated the VIX with a 15% drop.  Yeah that makes sense. Heading into a key economic report risk plummets. Nothing to see here.      

Bad news is still good

When the miserable durable goods report hit the tape at 8:30am SPX futures spiked as did the yield on the 30 Tbond. Bad news is still good — it keeps hope alive that we’ll see another sugar bomb soon.   Yup. A healthy economy and healthy markets…..  

60 minutes later (post FOMC)

60min after the Fed posted its FOMC statement, we have stock and bond markets reacting in tantrum mode:   But hey, central bank threats/actions don’t matter. Right.    

Release the Dudley -and the Bullard

In a speech this morning, St. Louis Fed Prez Bullard (has a vote on the FOMC this year) began planting the seeds for the Fed to begin backing away from more rate hikes.  Markets reacted immediately. This action is going to impact today’s and potentially this week’s mini Greedometer input parameters. Dudley is on tap tomorrow. Let’s see how much he follows through. Expectations […] Read the rest of this entry »

Fed’s Fisher has same view as Greedometer

Former Dallas regional Fed Prez  Richard Fisher said on CNBC today that he believes the Fed “has no ammunition left”.   I find this intriguing because the current Greedometer sequence (#10) was born a year ago with a 0-week lag from the truncation of Greedometer sequence 9.  That this happened suggests Greedometer sequence 10 is: likely to be the last or second to last sequence; […] Read the rest of this entry »

Note to the BoJ and ECB: please spike the punch bowl now

  According to the Greedometers, someone will have to spike the global central bank punch bowl within the next week (2 at the most). Otherwise things get ugly again — like August but uglier. Just so we’re clear, we both know you’re fighting a losing battle. But if you don’t want things to melt down on your watch, you’re going to need to spike […] Read the rest of this entry »

Momo algos take the CB hand off and ignite

The morning CB liquidity-driven rally ran out of gas shortly after the open.  So NY Fed Prez Dudley game to the rescue at 10:15am.  I have no doubt SPX futures would have crashed to 1800-1820 today without the Dudley sugar bomb (no rate hike in September). Here’s what failed CB-liquidity driven SPX ramps look like… The dotted line is where SPX futures would likely […] Read the rest of this entry »

Note to Bill Dudley

Hi Bill. What interesting timing your comments were an hour ago.   Just as the central bank liquidity driven early morning ramp was running out of gas, you threw out a parachute by suggesting a September Fed rate hike was less likely. I see your comments immediately impacted SPX futures and slowed the pace the ramp was dying.  Well done.   This should help […] Read the rest of this entry »