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Category Archives: Broad Economy

IMF updates global economic forecast with brown ink

The International Monetary Fund has reduced its global economic growth forecast for 2013 by 0.2% to 3.3%, and retained the same 4% growth forecast for 2014.  They also expected 2013 US GDP growth to be 1.9%.  These forecasts are too optimistic and are written in brown ink.  We’re a third of the way through the year, and the IMF (with a cadre of PhD […] Read the rest of this entry »

Chicago Fed data: recession’s doorstep

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago tracks 85 national measures of economic activity in their National Activity Index. Not surprisingly, it is highly correlated to GDP. Once a running monthly sum reaches a certain threshold, a recession call is likely. The latest data came out this morning (for December 2012). I pay attention to the 3-month rolling average, since it removes a lot of […] Read the rest of this entry »

5 minute version of this week’s Greedometer Newsletter

  Suspended animation. The past few weeks have seen a continued increase in the rate of weakening of economic data.  Yet stock markets have remained elevated on hopes for expanded monetary policy in China, Europe, and the US (QE3).  All that monetary candy is now baked into current stock prices, so it better materialize.  I think the chance of new expansionary monetary policy in […] Read the rest of this entry »

European brown ink is fading

  Big Picture: Data continues to arrive showing the global recession spreading. This is what we heard from the Chairman of the European Central Bank on Thursday. Global industrial activity is in or near contraction almost everywhere on the planet. Meanwhile the greedometers continue to adhere to a sequence that was suggested back at the beginning of the year — a sequence that says […] Read the rest of this entry »

Hold your breath

  Hello everyone. From time to time, I review the website statistics. This year has yielded surprising reports. The explosive growth in visitor traffic from New York, London, Singapore, Melbourne, Toronto, and other places has been interesting. Over the past few months, there has also been a large increase in the number of visitors from Cisco Systems.  When I was a Nortel engineer, Cisco […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Top Cometh…

  The view presented by the greedometers still indicate April is the top for risk assets and that the economic slowdown of 2012 – 2013 began earlier this year. The US economy will probably slow to the point where it stalls completely and falls back into recession in the current quarter. The book (Greedometer. Dow 5000. Why nobody sees it coming.) will go into […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories April 21 2012

  Another very interesting week from the greedometers. It is increasingly looking like we’re within 2 weeks of a secular (long term) top in risk asset prices. Much more details in the private client letter on Wednesday. Speaking of which, next month will see further progress in terms of converging the 2 weekly letters into 1, and in separating the content displayed in client letters […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories March 17 2012

In the US: Let’s talk about the stress test results that were announced by the Fed this week. The 19 largest (systemically important) banks were tested to see how they’ll hold up if they were faced with a terrible economy. We’re told that 4 banks failed, and that Citigroup was one of them. Other than that, break out the champaign. The worst case scenario […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories Feb 11 2012

  In the US: The latest economic false dawn resembles last year’s false dawn -and that of 2010- in so many ways: Stock markets are up — where they were in 2011, and within range of  the 2007 and 2000 levels.  Pundits in 2011 were forecasting 3-4% GDP growth. What we ended up with was annualized growth rates of 0.4% growth in Q1 2011 and 1.6% […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories

  (with thanks to the Financial Times for this) 2012 began with a bang. The first day of trading saw some of the largest gains for a first day of the year in decades. Too bad all those gains occurred before markets opened on Tuesday. Indeed the entire US stock market gain for the week happened before the 9:30am opening bell on Tuesday (no, of course this game is not […] Read the rest of this entry »