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Category Archives: Broad Economy

Fed needs to go all in

  October 2007 was the launch point for the last big crash. If you had the Greedometer and mini Greedometer, you would have recognized it (see here). But if you only worked from  anecdotal economic and fundamental data, what could you have looked for? flat/inverted US Treasury yield curve Fed interest rate cuts bank loan loss reserves growing the financial sector hitting a lower […] Read the rest of this entry »

20 years of central banks stopping crashes to build the everything bubble in 2018

Other than a tornado watch, it’s a pleasant Sunday afternoon in North Carolina. Time for a big picture update. I went through my data (will be 20 years in January 2019). Here’s what it showed. 1. The time between Greedometer sequences has dropped following an exponential decay curve. This suggests the economy and stock market keep crashing and being saved by policies that don’t […] Read the rest of this entry »

A warning from Sheila Bair

Barron’s has a great interview with Sheila Bair today.  Ms. Bair was Chair of the CFTC then the FDIC. Few people understand the U.S. banking system and its risks better than her. https://www.barrons.com/articles/sheila-bair-sees-the-seeds-of-another-financial-crisis-1519916556   Here are some take aways: – “I don’t have a problem with deregulation but I can’t believe we are moving to weaken capital rules for banks.” – “In these benign […] Read the rest of this entry »

Guitar as a service

Yesterday my wife sent me an email with a link to an interesting article about the guitar industry (because I own a guitar, appreciate their beauty, took a year of lessons, and wish I could play 1/10th as well as my son).  In summary, the article suggests the reason the guitar industry has been in decline is because there are no ‘guitar heroes’ like […] Read the rest of this entry »

How do you use the Conference Board LEI?

Here’s the Conference Board LEI … It is quoted a lot by economists and investors. I don’t use it because I can’t get much out of it. The CB LEI did a good job at identifying the entry point of the Great Recession. But not the recession before that, nor the 2 quarters of contraction seen in Q1 2011 and Q1 2014.   It […] Read the rest of this entry »

Q2 GDP: 2nd kick at the can

The BEA’s 2nd kick at Q2 real GDP growth is +4.11%. A small bump from their previous  estimate.  Not much change was expected. Note, here are the BEAs GDP estimates: Q2: $15.9943B Q1: $15.8317B Q4 2013: $15916.2B Hence the past 2 quarters saw real GDP growth of -2.12% (Q1) and +4.11% (Q2).  Yet the BEA’s headline is -2.1% and +4.2%. They are apparently happy to […] Read the rest of this entry »

Budget Deal: A tragic farce

Congress is poised to pass a budget for the first time in years. It means: $20B in deficit cuts over the next decade; extended unemployment benefits end in January. This is a farce!  The rosiest of budget deficit projections show the federal debt growing by $4T over the next 10 years.  (I used the White House projection for the next 5 years -$2.8T- then […] Read the rest of this entry »

US Manufacturing PMI Update

The U.S. manufacturing sector saw very modest growth in the latest survey of Purchasing Managers (the PMI).  The manufacturing sector has been gradually slowing since peaking in early 2010. The latest report also showed a weakening in new orders. So next month’s reading should be equally weak. Once again, the trend is not your friend. This is the best we can do — and […] Read the rest of this entry »

Q1 GDP (3rd estimate)

  At the beginning of the year I wrote that Q1 GDP would probably be 2%, but that the BEA would provide a first estimate of 3%. It’s first cut ended up being +2.5%. A month ago I wrote: “Earlier today saw the release of the BEA’s 2nd estimate of Q1 GDP. With more data available -especially from later in the quarter- the GDP […] Read the rest of this entry »

June Recession call — still in tact

This morning saw the latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index report –always of interest to me. The 3-month rolling average showed continued declines in activity on a national basis -as I’ve been predicting. By the end of July, we’ll have the June data. My forecast calls for a -3.5 running total for the 3-month moving average.  It was -2.42 when the US entered the […] Read the rest of this entry »