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Category Archives: Brazil

Short Economic Stories April 21 2012

  Another very interesting week from the greedometers. It is increasingly looking like we’re within 2 weeks of a secular (long term) top in risk asset prices. Much more details in the private client letter on Wednesday. Speaking of which, next month will see further progress in terms of converging the 2 weekly letters into 1, and in separating the content displayed in client letters […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories March 17 2012

In the US: Let’s talk about the stress test results that were announced by the Fed this week. The 19 largest (systemically important) banks were tested to see how they’ll hold up if they were faced with a terrible economy. We’re told that 4 banks failed, and that Citigroup was one of them. Other than that, break out the champaign. The worst case scenario […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories March 10 2012

The greedometers are increasingly suggesting that we’re currently in the warm-up act a few months before a secular top in risk assets. (More in the private client letter on Wednesday.) In addition, talk about low trading volume. Wow! Watching Friday’s equity markets, you would have thought two guys were buying and selling. When only 300M S&P500 company shares have traded by 3pm, you know […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories Jan 21 2012

Big Picture: Warning: The mini greedometer (tactical risk indicator) is displaying readings previously only seen when the S&P500 was within 5% of a secular (long term) top. The greedometer (strategic risk indicator) is approaching dangerous risk levels as well. There is very little upside and a great deal of downside to risk assets (stocks, junk bonds, commodities, REITs) at this time. A much more […] Read the rest of this entry »

US Banking System Getting Worse

I have written repeatedly over the past year (and longer than that) that the US banking system is very weak – more specifically, that it is weaker than the Fed, Treasury and financial press would have us know.  Here is an update, and a summary of what it means to how we are investing… The Economist magazine states that western (N America, Europe) bank […] Read the rest of this entry »

Brazil still looks good.

First, as a continuation of the previous article, some of you may be wondering if a Spanish banking crisis may impact Brazil. The answer is probably not much. Despite the fact that some of the largest banks in Brazil are Spanish e.g., Santander, Brazil’s banks are run as independent entities from their parent companies in other countries. Plus Brazil’s banks are famously profitable from […] Read the rest of this entry »

You have to like Brazil

In obvious juxtaposition to the previous article, here is a “pick-me-up”. Why I am so optimistic on the Brazilian economy: First, an education: The country’s land mass is approx 90% the area of the USA (big) – 3.1M sq mi (Brazil) vs 3.5M sq mi (USA). Population: almost 200M people. (5th most populous country) Language: Portuguese Main religion: catholic (almost everyone) Government: democracy Currency: […] Read the rest of this entry »