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Category Archives: BIGPIGS

A decidedly un-virtuous cycle

  The IMF is asking politicians not to implement so-called ‘austerity’ budgets. Good grief. That Europe, the US, and many other economies are falling into recession is regrettable. But it is neither surprising nor stoppable. There are a myriad of reasons the US and European economies are in economic recession (the odds are good the US and any remaining portion of Europe not already in […] Read the rest of this entry »

How long will this Eurofudge last?

  Big Picture: The many $T in personal, bank, and sovereign debt that was built-up — here, in Europe, and in Japan is not all going to be paid back — not in paper currencies that are worth the same value. The process of delivering that loss is in its 5th year and is going to take at least a decade more. We’re at […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories May 26 2012

  The anticipated bounce in risk assets happened within a few days of when the mini greedometer suggested it would. The trouble is, the bounce is not in the right place to have sustainability. Per my note in the private client letter last week, there was 1 year in the last 40 that saw a bounce in mid May continue into and through July […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Top was in April.

  (Important) Housekeeping comments: 1. We’re approaching the date when we will combine 2 weekly email letters into 1. The new letter will contain a very brief summary and website link to facilitate login and access to the entire letter (economic news and data, analysis, the greedometers, and details on the specific investments we plan to buy / sell.) 2. An interactive greedometer gauge […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Top Cometh…

  The view presented by the greedometers still indicate April is the top for risk assets and that the economic slowdown of 2012 – 2013 began earlier this year. The US economy will probably slow to the point where it stalls completely and falls back into recession in the current quarter. The book (Greedometer. Dow 5000. Why nobody sees it coming.) will go into […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories April 7 2012

Since the beginning of the year, we’ve been watching the latest Fed -and now also ECB induced- bubble inflate. I’ve been trying to discern (with the aid of the greedometers) whether April or July will be a secular stock market peak from which another 50-60% collapse initiates. Granted the Fed and ECB will be forced to come to the rescue in August, but what […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories March 3 2012

Bailouts spreading The US financial system was on the front line of news stories in 2008 & 2009. Since then, it has quietly repaired and rebuilt itself. More wealth, more debt, and hence more risk is now concentrated in even fewer and larger banks as a result. In the short run there was and is no other way. But eventually the mega banks will […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories January 28 2012

In the US: •The Fed announced it plans to leave short term interest rates in the current 0 – 0.25% range until late in 2014. And an explicit 2% inflation target was set. •Bond markets are interpreting the news something along these lines: the economy is sufficiently weak and likely to remain that way for several years. So the Fed is going to commit […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories

Big Picture: The balance sheet recession continues here in the US, and in Japan and Europe. As Reinhart & Rogoff suggested in their book – This Time Is Different – we can expect recessions to come more frequently and economic growth to be more shallow than we’ve come to expect over the past several decades. The greedometer and mini greedometer are showing some very […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories

  (with thanks to the Financial Times for this) 2012 began with a bang. The first day of trading saw some of the largest gains for a first day of the year in decades. Too bad all those gains occurred before markets opened on Tuesday. Indeed the entire US stock market gain for the week happened before the 9:30am opening bell on Tuesday (no, of course this game is not […] Read the rest of this entry »