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Category Archives: advisor sentiment (wrong when it matters)

Advisor Sentiment: euphoria. Impact on Greedometers.

The trailing 7 wk avg of advisor sentiment is nipping at 3.5 bulls to bears (Investors Intelligence advisor sentiment data). This is the highest annual opening 7 week stretch in the 13+ years of advisor sentiment data I have.  2nd place goes to 2015 (the opening months of Greedometer 10 sequence). Advisors tend to be wildly bullish near secular peaks and wildly bearish near […] Read the rest of this entry »

Best day of 2014

The SPX had its best day of 2014 today.  It’s nice to be long on days like this. Just ignore the breadth, and the buybacks, and the fact the ECRI WLI is rolling over, and the fact profit margins are about to mean revert in a huge way, and the wildly elevated  S&P500 CAPE, and the fact advisor sentiment has been off the charts […] Read the rest of this entry »

Fear is spreading

Investor fear is now palpable.  Good. We can make use of this. Earlier in the year I posted this note about the emotions of a hypothetical trader (investor?) during the 2007-2009 crash.  See if any of it resonates with you.  Granted, you are older and wiser now — having been through two major market crashes in the past 15 years. Still, you may be […] Read the rest of this entry »

Advisor Sentiment Obliterates previous records…again

OK 1 more from this afternoon’s Greedometer newsletter….

Fear remains on holiday (don’t tell Janet)

  When an exceptionally high proportion of advisors agree, they’re usually wrong. This has been the case at many secular and interim stock market peaks. With that being said, last week saw the highest single week reading of advisor sentiment in the 10 years of data I have (on this data stream) — and likely the highest reading ever!  A ratio of 3.87 bulls/bears […] Read the rest of this entry »

Advisers are slowly but increasingly getting it wrong. Again.

When high proportions of advisers agree, they’re usually wrong. That’s true at stock market tops and bottoms. Secular (long term) stock market tops usually see a ratio of 3 bulls for every bear (or thereabouts). Last week’s adviser sentiment data was just released (from Investors Intelligence). There were 2.66 bulls for every bear. Not quite 3X but we’re getting there. The last time it […] Read the rest of this entry »

Advisor Sentiment: wrong when it matters

As you know from previous posts regarding the advisor sentiment indicator, it is a valuable data source, yet subject to false alarms. It is valuable because when advisors are in wide agreement about the stock market, their view may be fairly reliably counted upon to be precisely wrong. Recently I forecast advisor sentiment reaching the 2.6-2.75 (bulls/bears ratio) range. Two weeks ago it reached […] Read the rest of this entry »

Advisor Sentiment on the edge

A few days ago I posted a blog entry (link here) suggesting last week’s advisor sentiment reading would be in the 2.6-2.75 range (bulls/bears).  The data just came out (for last week).  I was close: Bulls/Bears = 2.43.  This is a very high reading, but not extreme. On a near term basis, the S&P500 is overbought, and the odds favor a small pullback and some […] Read the rest of this entry »