The past quarter has been a tough one if your portfolio was heavily tilted towards risk assets. You may be wondering what 2019 will look like. Well, the Greedometer algorithms say 2019 is going to be brutal. By the end of next week, the Greedometer algorithms will have a pretty tight forecast for:
- the month the U.S. economy enters recession
- the scale of recession
- the scale of drop in the S&P500 (approx bottom price)
- the month the crash ends
- the U.S. yield curve
- credit spreads
- U.S. residential house price forecast
- the impact of the Fed lowering rates from 2.5% to 0 by the end of next year (which is what it is going to do)
- the impact of a comprehensive U.S.-China trade deal
- bonus: the Greedometers will be able to identify major inflection points in the S&P500 as we move through this crash –assisting with tactical portfolio moves
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All the best in 2019.