Hi all. (y’all?) Provided reality is permitted to happen (no central bank sugar bombs / Trump tweets of marvelousness and China trade deals about to be done) we will see the much anticipated mini Greedometer sequence 1st baseline point this week or next. Doubt it would be 2+ weeks out. Per the video, there remains a range of possibilities for this week’s close and […] Read the rest of this entry
Here is a short video showing the current Greedometer 13 and mini Greedometer 13 sequence. It shows an expected SPX drop next week –unless something new and yummy comes from one of the top central banks –or unless the Commander in Tweet says a trade deal with China will happen this week. This video explains how we got here. At some […] Read the rest of this entry
Since my last warning of inconvenient reality beginning to happen (March 6th): The Fed has formally backed away from any more rate hikes this year, committed to ending QT by September, and threatened to expand the balance sheet again (more QE!). The ECB has announced a new (3rd) LTRO program and threatened to do more if need be. The PBoC has threatened to do […] Read the rest of this entry
This morning the ECB announced several new supportive policy measures (punch bowl spiking) to prevent the stock market from dropping -ahem- maintain the efficacy of its monetary policy transmission mechanism. The Greedometer algorithms continue to warn when central banks need to spike the punch bowl or risk the possibility of price discovery and actual market based mechanisms inflicting reality. No, the ECB is not […] Read the rest of this entry
Hello Fed, ECB, BoJ, PBoC, SNB. At least one of you must threaten to spike the punch bowl this week. Otherwise reality will start to happen again.
First, the punchline: $40-50T is going to evaporate from global equities over the next 12-18 months (the end date depends on effectiveness of central bank ammunition that is yet to be deployed). FYI we’re still down $10T from the peak in January 2018. The crash that will unfold in 2019-2020 is going to introduce a significant opportunity for investment strategies that profit (or […] Read the rest of this entry
The Fed caved to what markets wanted (needed?). Chairman Powell did an admirable job in his press conference of calmly conveying a message that everything is somewhat awesome, but the global economy is slowing, and the Federal government shutdown is having a dampening effect (neither of those things are the fault of Fed policy). So, we’re now fully migrated to expectations for no rate […] Read the rest of this entry
Today and tomorrow the Fed has an FOMC meeting. Tomorrow afternoon has the statement and presser. BTW now every FOMC meeting has a press conference -instead of every second meeting. So every meeting gives the Fed a chance to calm/steer markets. Fed Chair Powell will announce one of these three things tomorrow: Maintain the “everything is great” position and threaten 2 rate hikes this year. […] Read the rest of this entry