Fee-Only Financial Planning in North Carolina

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ECB asks DB about winding down

Arguably the most important bank in Europe is Deutsche Bank. And yet it continues to struggle with the worst price to book of any systemically important financial institution. Over the weekend the ECB asked it to submit plans about how it would wind down its investment bank. FT article here.  Hmm. Gone are the days when the ECB & EBA were made laughing stocks […] Read the rest of this entry »

Which central banker will threaten to spike the punch bowl this week?

This is a huge week for earnings with approximately 200 S&P500 companies reporting. However, earnings have not mattered to S&P500 company / index prices in many years. You are probably aware that as of late January 2018, with the S&P500 setting new all time highs near 2900 we have these metrics: Top 4 most expensive S&P500 points in time as measured by Price to […] Read the rest of this entry »

20 years of central banks stopping crashes to build the everything bubble in 2018

Other than a tornado watch, it’s a pleasant Sunday afternoon in North Carolina. Time for a big picture update. I went through my data (will be 20 years in January 2019). Here’s what it showed. 1. The time between Greedometer sequences has dropped following an exponential decay curve. This suggests the economy and stock market keep crashing and being saved by policies that don’t […] Read the rest of this entry »

The significance of this week: all good things must come to an end

All good things must come to an end. This includes central bankers propping up global asset markets. I’m assuming you know that central bank actions and threats of actions to “spike the punch bowl” have been nonstop over the past several years — frequently within 48 hours of me doing an interview or blog post that a drop was imminent and thus preventing the expected […] Read the rest of this entry »

Add BoJ and ECB to PBoC efforts to stop a market drop 2 weeks ago

Two weeks ago I wrote a brief blog post saying the PBoC was buying across the board – equity index futures, forex, bonds —all to stop a stock market drop. It worked for a few hours. link here  Turns out the ECB and BoJ were busy as well. The ECB turned its QE printing press to 11 for a few hours and vacuumed up European […] Read the rest of this entry »

This week: something that central banks have not allowed to happen since October 2014

I’ve been in the business (two businesses actually) of trying to profit from stock market drops and bounces for years. It was a lot easier before October 2014. Since then we’ve seen central banks do surprise intrusions every few weeks, laying waste to tactical long-short strategies. Here’s a chart showing the mini Greedometer 8 and 9 sequence. Even without any training in this system […] Read the rest of this entry »

A video showing the Fed stopping SPX drops in 2016

Here is mini Greedometer 11 sequence. It shows the Fed leading the charge, repeatedly stopping a drop and slowing the pace of an overall crash.  

Housing bubble 2.0. best ever.

In retrospect everyone looks back at the housing bubble of 2005-2007 and understands why house prices had to correct. Well, for the past couple years we’ve exceed the scale of that housing bubble and grown a larger one. * real median HH income is baselined on 1947 and adjusted by CPI. source: BLS * real mean house price is baselined on 2008 being equal […] Read the rest of this entry »

Why I’m still working on my first $billion

One of the most frequent comments I get from website visitors is a skeptical query that goes something like this… “if this system is so great, why aren’t you a billionaire?”  Fair question.  Allow me to demonstrate. The last time central banks allowed a mini Greedometer sequence to be “locked in” was October 2014. In order for these algos/ this system to be used […] Read the rest of this entry »

U.S. stock market circuit breaker not hit today.

The October 19 1987 crash saw the Dow shed 22% (pretty much the same for the SPX). As a result of this crash, the Reagan White House asked for a team to be assembled to study the problem and put in place measures to stop severe crashes from happening again. Investopedia has a decent summary here. To the best of my knowledge, U.S. stock […] Read the rest of this entry »