All good things must come to an end. This includes central bankers propping up global asset markets. I’m assuming you know that central bank actions and threats of actions to “spike the punch bowl” have been nonstop over the past several years — frequently within 48 hours of me doing an interview or blog post that a drop was imminent and thus preventing the expected […] Read the rest of this entry
Two weeks ago I wrote a brief blog post saying the PBoC was buying across the board – equity index futures, forex, bonds —all to stop a stock market drop. It worked for a few hours. link here Turns out the ECB and BoJ were busy as well. The ECB turned its QE printing press to 11 for a few hours and vacuumed up European […] Read the rest of this entry
I’ve been in the business (two businesses actually) of trying to profit from stock market drops and bounces for years. It was a lot easier before October 2014. Since then we’ve seen central banks do surprise intrusions every few weeks, laying waste to tactical long-short strategies. Here’s a chart showing the mini Greedometer 8 and 9 sequence. Even without any training in this system […] Read the rest of this entry
Here is mini Greedometer 11 sequence. It shows the Fed leading the charge, repeatedly stopping a drop and slowing the pace of an overall crash.
In retrospect everyone looks back at the housing bubble of 2005-2007 and understands why house prices had to correct. Well, for the past couple years we’ve exceed the scale of that housing bubble and grown a larger one. * real median HH income is baselined on 1947 and adjusted by CPI. source: BLS * real mean house price is baselined on 2008 being equal […] Read the rest of this entry
One of the most frequent comments I get from website visitors is a skeptical query that goes something like this… “if this system is so great, why aren’t you a billionaire?” Fair question. Allow me to demonstrate. The last time central banks allowed a mini Greedometer sequence to be “locked in” was October 2014. In order for these algos/ this system to be used […] Read the rest of this entry
The October 19 1987 crash saw the Dow shed 22% (pretty much the same for the SPX). As a result of this crash, the Reagan White House asked for a team to be assembled to study the problem and put in place measures to stop severe crashes from happening again. Investopedia has a decent summary here. To the best of my knowledge, U.S. stock […] Read the rest of this entry
I present a video showing the current Greedometer sequence, mini Greedometer sequence and the resulting S&P500 forecast. I also present an estimate of when & what the Fed will do to stop/slow this crash. Among other things, this video will make it clear that you could have known in October 2007 that a crash was initiating. The S&P500 forecast I present in the video […] Read the rest of this entry
Last night around 2:20am N America time saw the PBoC (the National Team) intervene to prop up global asset markets again. Your free markets at work.
With Deutsche Bank stock being pummeled this morning (down 6%, with a price to book of 0.39!), I suspect there are going to be some busy risk management folks today). If you are in the business of delivering products/solutions/services to help banks and credit unions understand, quantify, and manage risk, congratulations. The next three years are going to be some of the […] Read the rest of this entry