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Housing bubble 2.0. best ever.

In retrospect everyone looks back at the housing bubble of 2005-2007 and understands why house prices had to correct. Well, for the past couple years we’ve exceed the scale of that housing bubble and grown a larger one. * real median HH income is baselined on 1947 and adjusted by CPI. source: BLS * real mean house price is baselined on 2008 being equal […] Read the rest of this entry »

Why I’m still working on my first $billion

One of the most frequent comments I get from website visitors is a skeptical query that goes something like this… “if this system is so great, why aren’t you a billionaire?”  Fair question.  Allow me to demonstrate. The last time central banks allowed a mini Greedometer sequence to be “locked in” was October 2014. In order for these algos/ this system to be used […] Read the rest of this entry »

U.S. stock market circuit breaker not hit today.

The October 19 1987 crash saw the Dow shed 22% (pretty much the same for the SPX). As a result of this crash, the Reagan White House asked for a team to be assembled to study the problem and put in place measures to stop severe crashes from happening again. Investopedia has a decent summary here. To the best of my knowledge, U.S. stock […] Read the rest of this entry »

Compare pre-crash 2007 to now with Greedometers (a free look)

I present a video showing the current Greedometer sequence, mini Greedometer sequence and the resulting S&P500 forecast. I also present an estimate of when & what the Fed will do to stop/slow this crash. Among other things, this video will make it clear that you could have known in October 2007 that a crash was initiating. The S&P500 forecast I present in the video […] Read the rest of this entry »

The National Team intervenes…again

Last night around 2:20am N America time saw the PBoC (the National Team) intervene to prop up global asset markets again. Your free markets at work.

The CECL Rush. What you don’t know.

With Deutsche Bank stock being pummeled this morning (down 6%, with a price to book of 0.39!), I suspect there are going to be some busy risk management folks today).      If you are in the business of delivering products/solutions/services to help banks and credit unions understand, quantify, and manage risk, congratulations. The next three years are going to be some of the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Kuroda-san: QE taper 2019

BOJ Governor Kuroda hit the wires last night by hinting the BoJ may begin maybe possibly thinking about the potential to maybe begin reducing (tapering) its mammoth QE program in 2019. Mammoth is too gentle a term for the BoJ’s QE program. Epic works better. With newly printed QE-yen, the BoJ has been buying every newly issued JGB (Japan federal government bond), and with […] Read the rest of this entry »

A warning from Sheila Bair

Barron’s has a great interview with Sheila Bair today.  Ms. Bair was Chair of the CFTC then the FDIC. Few people understand the U.S. banking system and its risks better than her. https://www.barrons.com/articles/sheila-bair-sees-the-seeds-of-another-financial-crisis-1519916556   Here are some take aways: – “I don’t have a problem with deregulation but I can’t believe we are moving to weaken capital rules for banks.” – “In these benign […] Read the rest of this entry »

4 rate hikes : testing

The new Fed Chairman Powell gave Congressional testimony this week about the economy, inflation, and interest rates. In summary (to paraphrase): the economy is doing well and going to continue to do so inflation is on track to reaching our 2% target unless something bad happens, we’ll likely raise interest rates 25bps four times this year. NY Fed Prez Bill Dudley chimed in a […] Read the rest of this entry »


Some interesting things…. The stock market downdraft from earlier this month caused the biggest quant fund blow up in history. And yet we were going to see another 3-day bloodbath last Thursday through today –but it was prevented by James Bullard’s comments early last Thursday morning. So far this year we’ve seen record setting advisor sentiment readings. We’ll revisit that this month and next. […] Read the rest of this entry »