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NYSE Margin Debt: nothing to see here…

NYSE margin debt for May was posted. Adjusted for M1 money supply, it fell from approx $551B to approx $528B. I’m expecting a new all-time high to be reached this month at $555B. Nothing to see here….

SPX: odd one out…still…

An update….   SPX: Long Bond: USD/JPY:   USD/CNH:   Something’s gotta give….    

Bullard: not my job to burst bubbles

Jim Bullard (St Louis Fed Prez and one of the biggest policy doves/bubble blowers  around) gave a speech this morning. The upshot: It’s not my job to burst bubbles. Tech is to blame for the SPX bubble. Wait for things to look better before any more rate hikes. full chart deck here: link  

Shortage of German Bunds not a problem (despite FT view)

There’s an interesting article in the FT this morning (link here if you have an FT subscription).  It suggests that because the ECB has for two months in a row not been able to buy its German Bund quota (per its own QE program), the QE program will have to be tapered.  Let me suggest the FT is wrong in their view. The ECB […] Read the rest of this entry »

One of these things is not like the other (SPX, 30yr, USD/JPY, USD/CNH)

One of these things is not like the other…. Guess which one has the B0J and SNB openly buying it. To be fair, there may well be some  support from the plunge protection team here in the U.S. (info here), the “national team” in China (PBoC), and the ECB. Absent the Dudley bombs from 8 weeks ago (“will not take the punch bowl away”) […] Read the rest of this entry »

Margin Debt: new all time high (over $0.55T)

NYSE Margin Debt set new all-time highs in April (as expected). Corrected for M1- money supply, the NYSE margin debt in April was ……. $550.6B. Those of you that’ve been following this site for a decade or more have watched this chart develop.  Some of you recall the halcyon days of 2000 when a paltry quarter Trillion dollars of NYSE margin debt was the […] Read the rest of this entry »

CFNAI data April 2017

The Chicago Fed CFNAI data for April was posted. If there are no more marvelous Trump tax cut tweets and Fed sugar bombs, the CFNAI 3mo avg will likely drop to -2.7 or lower in September. The U.S. economy would definitely be in recession then. Mind you the Commerce Department and Fed would not publicly state that they see a recession until at least […] Read the rest of this entry »

Central bank sugar bombs (release the Bullard)

Presented with no comment….        

April – July 2017 resembles July – October 2007

The April to July period this year is beginning to resemble July-October 2007. Here’s what the Greedometer and mini Greedometer were doing in 2007-09. I draw your attention to the July – October 2007 period. Notice how the Greedometer readings peaked lower in October 2007 than in July 2007 –while the SPX in October 2007 was re-testing the July 2007 peak?  That’s the Greedometer […] Read the rest of this entry »

Margin debt: new all-time high

NYSE margin debt for March 2017 set a new all-time high of $536.3B, beating February’s record-setting $528.2B.  However, corrected for M1 money supply growth, February remains the all-time high record holder at $532B, while March is $526B.  I expect April to set new all-time highs irrespective of money supply growth.   FYI, trailing 12month as-reported S&P500 earnings are now 16% higher than they were […] Read the rest of this entry »