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Greedometer gauge adjusted

Hello all. With nearly 19 years of history/data, the Greedometer gauge had to be re-tuned this weekend. Price is not an input parameter, so this week’s 2575 SPX close is not a factor in this re-tuning. January 2014 saw the SPX in the 1840s with an associated Greedometer peak value at 7700.  This week saw the SPX close at 2575 with a Greedometer reading […] Read the rest of this entry »

Happy 30th anniversary Plunge Protection Team

Today is the 30th anniversary of the infamous October 19 1987 Black Monday stock market crash. Since U.S. equity markets are once again in an historic bubble, the financial press is all over this story. side note. The top U.S. equity market bubbles of the past 130+ years as measured by price to earnings and price to revenue are (from largest to smallest): year […] Read the rest of this entry »

When bank stress tests will get stress tested. Why you should care.

If you are a U.S. bank CEO, CFO, CRO, CTO, you are going to be interested in this post. If you’re not, read this anyway because you’re going to learn something that will impact how you manage your personal investment portfolio over the next couple years.  (S&P500 at 2556 as I write this on October 13 2017)  The next two years will be a […] Read the rest of this entry »

Will America get safer yet?

Will we have the wisdom to follow the Australians towards improved gun safety laws after this terrible tragedy (Las Vegas mass shooting)? As you are doubtless aware, there was a mass shooting in Las Vegas last night wherein more than 50 people lost their lives.  From 1979 to 1996 Australia suffered more than a dozen terrible mass shootings culminating in the worst in 1996 […] Read the rest of this entry »

New Margin Debt record. Reprise.

August NYSE Margin Debt was posted at….. $B550,851 -> another new all-time record in financial system leverage. Corrected for M1 money supply growth, the value is $B545,230 — not quite a new all-time high (that goes to Aprils’s M1 corrected value of $552B). Regardless we’re at a lofty perch this year.   Nothing to see here.

July 2017 NYSE Margin Debt Record

NYSE Margin debt for July was posted at $549.9B (called it $550B) — the highest ever. Corrected for M1 money supply growth (an attempt to normalize to make comparisons across time more meaningful), it was $544.5B -the 2nd highest reading ever. April’s $550.6B (M1 corrected) remains the tallest margin debt skyscraper of all time. I should point something out regarding the chart above. Margin […] Read the rest of this entry »

Release the Dudley. Again

NY Fed Prez Bill Dudley was interviewed by the A.P. today. The interview hit the tape around 3pm. It moved asset prices, but not a lot. Arguably the most important take away from his interview was that the Fed’s balance sheet is going to be reduced but it would be incredibly slow.  Dudley estimated that 5 years from now the Fed’s balance sheet would […] Read the rest of this entry »

Calling Yellen…Dudley…Bullard. Time to threaten to spike the punch bowl. Again.

Immediately prior to Bill Dudley threatening to “not take the punch bowl away yet” in March, the mini Greedometer looked like it does now (dropping near 60). That must have been too problematic, so Dudley made no less than three threats over the ensuing two weeks. Happiness was rented for about six weeks. This brings us to May. The mini Greedometer was looking the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Guitar as a service

Yesterday my wife sent me an email with a link to an interesting article about the guitar industry (because I own a guitar, appreciate their beauty, took a year of lessons, and wish I could play 1/10th as well as my son).  In summary, the article suggests the reason the guitar industry has been in decline is because there are no ‘guitar heroes’ like […] Read the rest of this entry »

Financialization: banks gobbling up the U.S. economy and making it riskier.

This is a chart showing the asset base of U.S. commercial banks and real GDP from 1972 to Q1 this year. Looks a little troublesome no? Let me make it easier for you. This graph is the quotient of the blue line in the chart above (bank assets) divided by the red line above (real GDP). Worried yet? You should be. This graph clearly […] Read the rest of this entry »