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Monthly Archives: December 2018

Can you quantify next year? Would you like to?

The past quarter has been a tough one if your portfolio was heavily tilted towards risk assets. You may be wondering what 2019 will look like. Well, the Greedometer algorithms say 2019 is going to be brutal. By the end of next week, the Greedometer algorithms will  have a pretty tight forecast for: the month the U.S. economy enters recession the scale of recession […] Read the rest of this entry »

GDP Report: does not matter- but not why you think

A few minutes ago the BEA (commerce department branch that estimates GDP) provided their 3rd estimate on Q3 GDP. their 1st estimate was +3.5% their 2nd was +3.5% today’s was +3.4% BEA Q3 GDP data since year 2000 yields these observations: 2nd estimates are 0.3%  higher than the 1st 3rd estimates are  0.02% higher than the 2nd (essentially the same) years after the fact, […] Read the rest of this entry »