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Monthly Archives: April 2018

and the BoE too

On Monday this week I did a blog post wherein I wondered which central bank would spike the punch bowl this week to keep the party going / stop it from ending. I did this because the Greedometers suggested stock market pain was once again on our doorstep. On Tuesday morning my question was answered when the PBoC dropped bank reserve ratios in a […] Read the rest of this entry »

Answer: PBoC

Yesterday I did a blog post asking which central banker will spike the punch bowl this week? This morning around 7am east coast N America we got the answer: the PBoC -so far. In a surprise move the PBoC lowered reserve requirement ratio for banks a full 1% (that’s a fair bit).  Loads of yummy risk-seeking liquidity came /will come into global markets. Unfortunately […] Read the rest of this entry »

ECB asks DB about winding down

Arguably the most important bank in Europe is Deutsche Bank. And yet it continues to struggle with the worst price to book of any systemically important financial institution. Over the weekend the ECB asked it to submit plans about how it would wind down its investment bank. FT article here.  Hmm. Gone are the days when the ECB & EBA were made laughing stocks […] Read the rest of this entry »

Which central banker will threaten to spike the punch bowl this week?

This is a huge week for earnings with approximately 200 S&P500 companies reporting. However, earnings have not mattered to S&P500 company / index prices in many years. You are probably aware that as of late January 2018, with the S&P500 setting new all time highs near 2900 we have these metrics: Top 4 most expensive S&P500 points in time as measured by Price to […] Read the rest of this entry »

20 years of central banks stopping crashes to build the everything bubble in 2018

Other than a tornado watch, it’s a pleasant Sunday afternoon in North Carolina. Time for a big picture update. I went through my data (will be 20 years in January 2019). Here’s what it showed. 1. The time between Greedometer sequences has dropped following an exponential decay curve. This suggests the economy and stock market keep crashing and being saved by policies that don’t […] Read the rest of this entry »

The significance of this week: all good things must come to an end

All good things must come to an end. This includes central bankers propping up global asset markets. I’m assuming you know that central bank actions and threats of actions to “spike the punch bowl” have been nonstop over the past several years — frequently within 48 hours of me doing an interview or blog post that a drop was imminent and thus preventing the expected […] Read the rest of this entry »

Add BoJ and ECB to PBoC efforts to stop a market drop 2 weeks ago

Two weeks ago I wrote a brief blog post saying the PBoC was buying across the board – equity index futures, forex, bonds —all to stop a stock market drop. It worked for a few hours. link here  Turns out the ECB and BoJ were busy as well. The ECB turned its QE printing press to 11 for a few hours and vacuumed up European […] Read the rest of this entry »

This week: something that central banks have not allowed to happen since October 2014

I’ve been in the business (two businesses actually) of trying to profit from stock market drops and bounces for years. It was a lot easier before October 2014. Since then we’ve seen central banks do surprise intrusions every few weeks, laying waste to tactical long-short strategies. Here’s a chart showing the mini Greedometer 8 and 9 sequence. Even without any training in this system […] Read the rest of this entry »

A video showing the Fed stopping SPX drops in 2016

Here is mini Greedometer 11 sequence. It shows the Fed leading the charge, repeatedly stopping a drop and slowing the pace of an overall crash.  

Housing bubble 2.0. best ever.

In retrospect everyone looks back at the housing bubble of 2005-2007 and understands why house prices had to correct. Well, for the past couple years we’ve exceed the scale of that housing bubble and grown a larger one. * real median HH income is baselined on 1947 and adjusted by CPI. source: BLS * real mean house price is baselined on 2008 being equal […] Read the rest of this entry »