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Monthly Archives: March 2018

Compare pre-crash 2007 to now with Greedometers (a free look)

I present a video showing the current Greedometer sequence, mini Greedometer sequence and the resulting S&P500 forecast. I also present an estimate of when & what the Fed will do to stop/slow this crash. Among other things, this video will make it clear that you could have known in October 2007 that a crash was initiating. The S&P500 forecast I present in the video […] Read the rest of this entry »

The National Team intervenes…again

Last night around 2:20am N America time saw the PBoC (the National Team) intervene to prop up global asset markets again. Your free markets at work.

The CECL Rush. What you don’t know.

With Deutsche Bank stock being pummeled this morning (down 6%, with a price to book of 0.39!), I suspect there are going to be some busy risk management folks today).      If you are in the business of delivering products/solutions/services to help banks and credit unions understand, quantify, and manage risk, congratulations. The next three years are going to be some of the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Kuroda-san: QE taper 2019

BOJ Governor Kuroda hit the wires last night by hinting the BoJ may begin maybe possibly thinking about the potential to maybe begin reducing (tapering) its mammoth QE program in 2019. Mammoth is too gentle a term for the BoJ’s QE program. Epic works better. With newly printed QE-yen, the BoJ has been buying every newly issued JGB (Japan federal government bond), and with […] Read the rest of this entry »

A warning from Sheila Bair

Barron’s has a great interview with Sheila Bair today.  Ms. Bair was Chair of the CFTC then the FDIC. Few people understand the U.S. banking system and its risks better than her. https://www.barrons.com/articles/sheila-bair-sees-the-seeds-of-another-financial-crisis-1519916556   Here are some take aways: – “I don’t have a problem with deregulation but I can’t believe we are moving to weaken capital rules for banks.” – “In these benign […] Read the rest of this entry »

4 rate hikes : testing

The new Fed Chairman Powell gave Congressional testimony this week about the economy, inflation, and interest rates. In summary (to paraphrase): the economy is doing well and going to continue to do so inflation is on track to reaching our 2% target unless something bad happens, we’ll likely raise interest rates 25bps four times this year. NY Fed Prez Bill Dudley chimed in a […] Read the rest of this entry »