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Monthly Archives: May 2017

One of these things is not like the other (SPX, 30yr, USD/JPY, USD/CNH)

One of these things is not like the other…. Guess which one has the B0J and SNB openly buying it. To be fair, there may well be some  support from the plunge protection team here in the U.S. (info here), the “national team” in China (PBoC), and the ECB. Absent the Dudley bombs from 8 weeks ago (“will not take the punch bowl away”) […] Read the rest of this entry »

Margin Debt: new all time high (over $0.55T)

NYSE Margin Debt set new all-time highs in April (as expected). Corrected for M1- money supply, the NYSE margin debt in April was ……. $550.6B. Those of you that’ve been following this site for a decade or more have watched this chart develop.  Some of you recall the halcyon days of 2000 when a paltry quarter Trillion dollars of NYSE margin debt was the […] Read the rest of this entry »

CFNAI data April 2017

The Chicago Fed CFNAI data for April was posted. If there are no more marvelous Trump tax cut tweets and Fed sugar bombs, the CFNAI 3mo avg will likely drop to -2.7 or lower in September. The U.S. economy would definitely be in recession then. Mind you the Commerce Department and Fed would not publicly state that they see a recession until at least […] Read the rest of this entry »

Central bank sugar bombs (release the Bullard)

Presented with no comment….        

April – July 2017 resembles July – October 2007

The April to July period this year is beginning to resemble July-October 2007. Here’s what the Greedometer and mini Greedometer were doing in 2007-09. I draw your attention to the July – October 2007 period. Notice how the Greedometer readings peaked lower in October 2007 than in July 2007 –while the SPX in October 2007 was re-testing the July 2007 peak?  That’s the Greedometer […] Read the rest of this entry »