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Monthly Archives: April 2017

Margin debt: new all-time high

NYSE margin debt for March 2017 set a new all-time high of $536.3B, beating February’s record-setting $528.2B.  However, corrected for M1 money supply growth, February remains the all-time high record holder at $532B, while March is $526B.  I expect April to set new all-time highs irrespective of money supply growth.   FYI, trailing 12month as-reported S&P500 earnings are now 16% higher than they were […] Read the rest of this entry »

Prove tax cuts work, get free Greedometer access

If you can find a 5-year period in the past 50 years where tax cuts in the U.S. lowered  federal debt to GDP, I’ll give you free access to the Greedometers.  (spoiler alert, it has never happened!)   Here’s a brilliant article in the FT that talks about tax cuts not generating an improved economy relative to debt.  I love the graphic in the […] Read the rest of this entry »

CFNAI: 3 months from recession entry point

Here’s what the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3mo rolling avg looks like in a trailing time series…. Mr Dudley (NY Fed Prez), someone’s going to need to spike the punch bowl again by July-Aug.  This forecast is based on the Greedometers, not the CFNAI. That said, we should expect a rolling 12mo sum of the 3mo avg of CFNAI to drop to […] Read the rest of this entry »

Release the Rosengren

Boston Fed Prez Rosengren did a scheduled speech this afternoon. A link to the high points… https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/top-takeaways-bard-college-talk-041917.aspx Notables: in the future, the weak economy “may necessitate more frequent use of large-scale asset purchases during recessions.” “quite likely” we’ll see more central bank QE programs in the future Fed “would take a very gradual approach to balance sheet reduction.” No obvious risk-on response from asset markets. Hmmm. […] Read the rest of this entry »

SAS Day today!

It’s here. Free access to all employees of SAS Institute. Use the website contact form to enquire.  https://www.greedometer.com/contact-us/contact-form/ What a great time to have a free look at the Greedometers. Things are developing nicely. Similar time periods were August 2015 and January 2016. This time is slightly different in that NY Fed Prez Bill Dudley intervened multiple times immediately priorto what would have been a […] Read the rest of this entry »

Open Analytics challenge

This is a challenge to anyone working at an analytics company — specifically those in the product management, marketing, or sales area.  Show me the risk management and forecasting solution you sell to the financial / insurance sector. Focus on how it warned your financial sector clients that an epic liquidity crunch was coming before it hit in September 2008. I also want to […] Read the rest of this entry »

Markets are re-synchronizing (risk off)

Presented with no commentary…    

Tomorrow is SAS day — free access

Tomorrow is SAS day. The Greedometers will be provided for free. Use the contact form to have an account created. Do you work for another analytics company and want free access? If there is sufficient demand I’ll set that up too.    

Which market catches up to which?

Guess which market is out of touch? US Tbond: USD/JPY: and the SPX:   Which market catches up to which? Spoiler alert: the equity market is always last to recognize a bubble.  

Trump: making things classy and interesting

At some point shortly after 3pm, President Trump said he thought the dollar was too strong… results:     Zooming out…   A lot of the hot air that’s been in the USD/JPY since the election is escaping. Ditto the 30yr yield….       He said “I think our dollar is getting too strong and that’s partly my fault because people have confidence […] Read the rest of this entry »