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Monthly Archives: March 2017

Release the Dudley

Yesterday saw NY Fed Prez Bill Dudley say “the Fed is in no rush to hike” and they’re “not removing the punchbowl yet” “just adding a bit more fruit juice”. His words will reduce the slope of the mini Greedometer 11 baseline slightly, slowing the pace of the pending protracted crash. Interesting that Bill chose yesterday (well, this week) to make those supportive/calming statements […] Read the rest of this entry »

New Margin debt record

NYSE margin debt (one of 10 Greedometer inputs) set a new all-time record in February at $528B ($531B corrected for M1 money supply growth to normalize).   Nothing to see here.

Myron Scholes meets the Greedometer

Yesterday I attended a conference about investing in alternative assets. The great Myron Scholes was the keynote speaker -and the main reason I attended. He is a brilliant and yet still approachable man. So approachable that I discussed the Greedometers (after we finished talking about Ontario Canada -where we’re both from), in particular how they identify points in time -not price- when a major […] Read the rest of this entry »

Central banks manipulating markets 2013 to 2016. New crash launch point coming.

  This video walks through mini Greedometer sequences 8, 9, and 10 in 2013 to 2016. It shows central banks slowing and stopping crashes. The video ends with the Trump win in November -and birth of Greedometer /mini Greedometer sequence 11. The Greedometer / mini Greedometer sequence 11 is beginning to quantify the protracted crash that is once again on our doorstep. You’re going […] Read the rest of this entry »

Pending crash resembles 2007-09

So far, the pending market crash is setting up similarly to the 2007-09 crash. An updated video of that: The Greedometers will be able to characterize this crash over the next 4-6 weeks. Expect more central bank sugar bombs along the way to warp it …..    

Perspective: global bond rout

The plight of bonds since the beginning of the year has been making headlines. Zooming out a little, 3.2-3.3% on the 30yr was due to be tested… That jump in yields from 2.95 to 3.2% over the past 8 weeks looks small in this context. What interests me is that 2.0% is going to be tested later this year — unless central banks find […] Read the rest of this entry »

Panic insider selling. Ignore this to your peril.

The first 9 weeks of 2017 have seen an average sustained level of panic insider selling at 6.0 shares sold vs bought. Previous similar time periods were: February 2007 at 6.26. 8 months prior to the crash launch point. This crash was stopped in March 2009 by the Fed’s expansion of QE1 in -PLUS- the changing of accounting rules to permit banks to avoid […] Read the rest of this entry »

Letter to DB Board

Dear Deutsche Bank board. Presumably you understand that you are not in a liquidity crunch but are in an existential crisis resulting from a severe balance sheet problem. The fact that your price to book is 0.41 means no one believes the asset value assignments on your balance sheet (among other things). If you want the institution to survive the next year, you are […] Read the rest of this entry »

Release the Dudley!

A series of Fed leaders spoke this week. They all indicated we’d see a rate hike in 2 weeks time (next FOMC meeting March 14-15).  This culminates with Fed chair Yellen today (then it’s 1.5 weeks of blackout).  In my years of following the Fed, NY Fed Prez Dudley has been the most powerful/effective speaker -aside from the Fed chair- in that his comments […] Read the rest of this entry »

Risk Mgr blind spot

The accepted consensus about the crash of 2007-09 is that it was based on a U.S. housing bubble and that no one saw it coming –other than the guys in The Big Short (one of my favorite movies, the book is even better). Judging by the widespread failure of risk managers to see the collapse coming in 2007, it’s safe to say a lot […] Read the rest of this entry »