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Monthly Archives: December 2016

What markets need is more terrorism, political unrest, and Trump

Over the past year we’ve seen 4 instances where markets were shut off or throttling mechanisms were otherwise used — followed by someone with monumentally deep pockets (BoJ and other central banks?) jamming the market higher. First, the November 2015 Paris terror attack. The stock market was dropping for a couple weeks leading into the terror attack.  Central banks said they would deploy emergency […] Read the rest of this entry »

SPX vs Industrial Production

The SPX has opened up a gap above industrial production -the economy- that is now exactly twice the previous largest spread.  These two data streams spend most of the time being close to one another. So either the economy is about to see its strongest growth in many years (while the dollar is extremely high in price and climbing higher thanks to rate hikes) […] Read the rest of this entry »

Safe markets

Presented with the least amount of commentary…. The extent to which the Fed has been extending liquidity life lines… (OK, this chart shows Fed sopping up liquidity. There’s no FRED database dataset showing the liquidity extended before it was mopped up. Look at the large spike in liquidity being mopped up in Sept-Oct 2008 — the Global Financial Crisis.  The Fed/this chart on its own […] Read the rest of this entry »

Earnings update

With 97.2% of S&P500 companies reported we have: As-reported earnings $25.59/share. TTM  $89.29 — the 7th consecutive quarter with declining earnings. I am confident that has never happened without a recession.  And yet…. Profit margins are 8.8%. nice. Earnings from ops (bulls*t earnings that leaves out bad stuff, used by the investment community): $25.89/share TTM down for the 6th straight quarter to $101.67. Profit […] Read the rest of this entry »