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Monthly Archives: January 2016

BoJ NIRP sugar bomb

A week ago the BoJ indicated they would not undertake NIRP (negative interest rate policy).  Last night they reversed course. NIRP is on the way as Japan joins Europe with negative interest rates. Judging by how the USD/JPY and SPX futures moved heading into the 10:30pm (last night –22:30 on the chart) announcement and how they reacted afterwards, it appears hopes were up for […] Read the rest of this entry »

BEA GDP not fudged (this time)

All be damned if the BEA posted a GDP growth estimate actually close to what it likely was –as opposed to overestimating it. Wonders never cease.  The BEA’s first guess at Q4 real GDP growth was +0.7% –matching the Atlanta Fed’s realtime estimate.  0.7% remains a very weak print. I have been expecting the BEA to post a 1.0 to 1.2% gain today, then […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short? Know this…

If you plan to profit from the collapse in risk assets this year (as I am), you better know this: Earnings matter slightly more than not at all. Plus they’re bullsh*t.  Companies will put off posting bad stuff until it must be posted. Note: Banks can apparently  mark asset prices to models once again –therein stalling the inconvenient necessity of having losses from the […] Read the rest of this entry »

No market rigging here

Twice today some portion of US equity options markets froze just long enough for downward momentum to be killed and allow someone else to jam options/ futures higher.    

Bad news is still good

When the miserable durable goods report hit the tape at 8:30am SPX futures spiked as did the yield on the 30 Tbond. Bad news is still good — it keeps hope alive that we’ll see another sugar bomb soon.   Yup. A healthy economy and healthy markets…..  

3rd Twitter attack on Greedometer

Earlier the Greedometer site was brought to its knees by a twitterbot — the 3rd such attack. Let me reiterate:  There are few things more short-worthy than twitter!  

60 minutes later (post FOMC)

60min after the Fed posted its FOMC statement, we have stock and bond markets reacting in tantrum mode:   But hey, central bank threats/actions don’t matter. Right.    

View Greedometer & mini Greedometer

The Fed’s FOMC statement this afternoon is going to have an impact on the SPX today and this year.  This is a 1-time free look at the Greedometer 10 and mini Greedometer 10 sequence and how I’m playing it.   This video is a follow-up to the video I posted 2.5 weeks ago — find that on the 2016 crash page). (this video was posted […] Read the rest of this entry »

Be extremely cautious today

Because I have paid clients and subscribers, I am limited to what I can post publicly.  With that said, be very cautious today. Strike that. Be extremely cautious today. If the Fed does not give the right message in their FOMC statement this afternoon, things are going to get violent. Oh, I forgot, central banks don’t matter.  Never mind….    

Great WSJ article (for a change): Global Meltdown

Yesterday saw a great article in the Wall St Journal. A nice change for the perma-bull half-truth crap that tends to be all too frequently written. This article is by former Dallas Fed V.P. Gerald O’Driscoll. Here‘s the link. My favorite parts: Creditors who lent to these energy producers will suffer losses on their loans, and they too might become financially impaired. If past […] Read the rest of this entry »