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Monthly Archives: December 2015

A big short

In honor of “The Big Short” I’m once again in a very big SPX short. All the best in 2016.    

The Big Short Movie

I saw the movie last night. Excellent. I recommend it. In particular I liked how the movie was not pure entertainment -though it was entertaining- it was funnier than I was expecting.  I liked how there was an element of documentary to the movie but that some of the more technical aspects were delivered via tongue and cheek humor. My favorite example of this […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Big Short –> Cool line.

Favorite line in the book so far (I’m sure this will be in the movie): “Don’t take this the wrong way. But I’m just trying to figure out how you’re going to f*** me.” Pretty much describes my view of the investment industry overall. Yes, there are plenty of nice people in the business, and yes I am in that same business (hey I’m […] Read the rest of this entry »

BEA GDP: repeated lies from their own data

Since this morning has the BEA providing its 3rd estimate of Q3 real GDP growth, I thought it would be time again to shed some light on what the BEA has been doing for the past 15 years.  The BEA has been over-estimating real GDP growth by an average of 1.16% on their 3rd estimates of Q3 real GDP growth. This is based on their own […] Read the rest of this entry »

CFNAI update

As you all know, the CFNAI (Chicago Fed National Activity Index) is one of many interesting data streams worth following. Here’s the update. I suspect the U.S. economy is 2-3 months from entering recession.  Time for the ECRI WLI to stall and begin rolling over (we’ll see this Friday morning).    

Hello Trolls

There seems to be a spike in scumbag trolls today.  Since it’s Christmas time, I’m in the mood to give the trolls some airtime.  Here’s your chance to take some shots at me / the Greedometers.   Rules: No swearing. You must be original. You must entertain me. You must include the firm you work for.   You know you want to.  Let’s see […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Big Short

I started reading The Big Short. Very interesting and entertaining. I recommend the book. I find it easy to empathize with the first two characters that have been introduced (I have not got very far into the book yet but of enjoying it).  I look forward to seeing the movie later this week. What excellent timing for this book -and movie.  U.S. residential real […] Read the rest of this entry »

The end game arrives

  Central banks -lead by the Fed- have been repeatedly stopping stock markets from crashing (or crashing further).  If you do not accept this premise you should stop reading this article and stop visiting this website. Without question the Fed has been the primary crash-stopper since 1999 (the period I’ve been studying since 2005). At some point the effectiveness of monetary policy tools diminish […] Read the rest of this entry »

1 down. 1 to go.

The biggest economic events of December were/are the Dec 3 ECB announcement and the Fed’s Dec 16 announcements.  1 down. 1 to go. Yesterday the ECB announced several new policy measures to help prevent inflation from becoming deflationary. As we all know, the delivery fell short of market expectations and risk assets plummeted. Indeed, safe havens like core European sovereign bonds plummeted, as did […] Read the rest of this entry »