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Monthly Archives: November 2015

Crucial

  The ECB and Fed actions over the next 3 weeks (ECB Dec 3, Fed Dec 16) will be crucial in determining the fate of global stock, bond, commodity, and currency markets. The Greedometers will absorb these key central bank actions, producing a roadmap that lays out where the S&P500 is going in 2016.    

Greedometer Fund

  There is approximately $8T in U.S. equity mutual funds (An estimate as of November 2015.  ICI says there was $8T in December 2014).  Nearly all of this $8T is long-only. As 2016 sees U.S. and global stock markets suffer one of the largest crashes in history, $8T will become $2.5-3T as U.S. stocks are more than cut in half, and as retail investors […] Read the rest of this entry »

Sorry, Merrill Lynch

My apologies to Merrill Lynch advisers. The bulk email service I was using sent you an email message that was supposed to be sent to Morgan Stanley advisers.  The email service messed up. The  message mentioned that I am trying to aggressively grow my service footprint at MS and am offering a discount to help facilitate this effort.  I will of course extend the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Yes yes yes

Yes yes yes. If you are trialing the newsletter, you’re liking this week a lot — and will like next week even more.  Fingers crossed we can go 2 weeks without a CB intrusion so that mini Greedo 11 can be characterized.        

New Institutional Service launched

To meet the needs of group and institutional investors, a new service has been launched.   Group / Institutional service: Daily updates to the Greedometer sequence chart and mini Greedometer sequence chart with analysis. Access to video analysis of an ongoing sequence. Daily access to Jeff via email and phone. Annual meeting at your office. Monthly conference call with your team. Presentations to your […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer service realignment

In order to better meet the needs of a growing subscriber/ client base, the Greedometer services have been re-aligned. Please visit the service tab for descriptions.  

Q3 earnings snapshot

S&P500 Q3 2015 earnings are 88% done as of the S&P posting on Nov 5th.  It shows: As reported earnings (aka real world, not earnings before bad stuff) trailing 12mo are down 15%.  Ouch! As reported earnings are down for the 4th quarter in a row. Revenue is down 3.2% year on year. As crappy is this is, it would be worse without the […] Read the rest of this entry »

New mini Greedometer videos explain CB intrusion effects

  Here is a link to a page on this site that shows the new process for interpreting  mini Greedometer response to surprise intrusions from the Fed as well as the other top central banks. To be clear, there have been no changes to the Greedometer algorithms. This is a process change to understand how the mini Greedometer responds to surprise central bank intrusions […] Read the rest of this entry »

Mini Greedometer better understood

One more thing. The recent process change for interpreting mini Greedometer response to central bank intrusions does a better job at explaining what happened over the past month.  This process change was back tested over the past sequences and does a better job overall at explaining what the SPX did and why.  Expensive lesson learned.  That’s what you do when your process is wrong. […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer inter sequence chart. Important change. DOOM!!!!

  Until last week this was the chart showing the time between Greedometer sequences. I was bothered by the G5-G6 value but wrote it off as a statistical anomaly.  Having spent some time re-analyzing the Greedometer and mini Greedometer charts, a slight change to interpreting the mini Greedometer response to central bank surprise intrusions is warranted.  With this new mini Greedometer interpretation process, the […] Read the rest of this entry »