Monthly Archives: November 2015
The ECB and Fed actions over the next 3 weeks (ECB Dec 3, Fed Dec 16) will be crucial in determining the fate of global stock, bond, commodity, and currency markets. The Greedometers will absorb these key central bank actions, producing a roadmap that lays out where the S&P500 is going in 2016.
There is approximately $8T in U.S. equity mutual funds (An estimate as of November 2015. ICI says there was $8T in December 2014). Nearly all of this $8T is long-only. As 2016 sees U.S. and global stock markets suffer one of the largest crashes in history, $8T will become $2.5-3T as U.S. stocks are more than cut in half, and as retail investors […] Read the rest of this entry
S&P500 Q3 2015 earnings are 88% done as of the S&P posting on Nov 5th. It shows: As reported earnings (aka real world, not earnings before bad stuff) trailing 12mo are down 15%. Ouch! As reported earnings are down for the 4th quarter in a row. Revenue is down 3.2% year on year. As crappy is this is, it would be worse without the […] Read the rest of this entry
Here is a link to a page on this site that shows the new process for interpreting mini Greedometer response to surprise intrusions from the Fed as well as the other top central banks. To be clear, there have been no changes to the Greedometer algorithms. This is a process change to understand how the mini Greedometer responds to surprise central bank intrusions […] Read the rest of this entry
One more thing. The recent process change for interpreting mini Greedometer response to central bank intrusions does a better job at explaining what happened over the past month. This process change was back tested over the past sequences and does a better job overall at explaining what the SPX did and why. Expensive lesson learned. That’s what you do when your process is wrong. […] Read the rest of this entry
Until last week this was the chart showing the time between Greedometer sequences. I was bothered by the G5-G6 value but wrote it off as a statistical anomaly. Having spent some time re-analyzing the Greedometer and mini Greedometer charts, a slight change to interpreting the mini Greedometer response to central bank surprise intrusions is warranted. With this new mini Greedometer interpretation process, the […] Read the rest of this entry