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Monthly Archives: August 2015

BEA GDP fudged higher

As expected, the BEA’s 2nd kick at Q2 GDP was pushed higher. Considerably higher — to +3.7%.  Their advance estimate (1st estimate) was +2.3%. Thank you inventory building. This inventory build overhang is now huge and will make it tough to see much GDP growth in Q3 & Q4 (but let’s not worry about that now…) So is good news good news (for the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Momo algos take the CB hand off and ignite

The morning CB liquidity-driven rally ran out of gas shortly after the open.  So NY Fed Prez Dudley game to the rescue at 10:15am.  I have no doubt SPX futures would have crashed to 1800-1820 today without the Dudley sugar bomb (no rate hike in September). Here’s what failed CB-liquidity driven SPX ramps look like… The dotted line is where SPX futures would likely […] Read the rest of this entry »

Note to Bill Dudley

Hi Bill. What interesting timing your comments were an hour ago.   Just as the central bank liquidity driven early morning ramp was running out of gas, you threw out a parachute by suggesting a September Fed rate hike was less likely. I see your comments immediately impacted SPX futures and slowed the pace the ramp was dying.  Well done.   This should help […] Read the rest of this entry »

Failed central banker ramps

Yesterday’s SPX ramp was brought to you by the BoJ. I guess they ran out of yen. Doubtless you are aware the BoJ long ago made its plans public wherein it would use some of its excess QE to buy equity index funds (and likely equity index futures contracts).  I wonder which central bank honey pot was driving things this morning. That effort just […] Read the rest of this entry »

Stock market crash 2015-2016 update

Last week’s Greedometer and mini Greedometer data is in and crunched. Last week’s Greedometer and mini Greedometer value was noticeably lower than I estimated it would be. Result: the crash will be slightly faster than I was modeling /expecting. The crash launch point has been steadily pushed out from the week of April 24th to May 22nd, to July 17th.   A steady flow […] Read the rest of this entry »

Blood in the streets. But not for long. Greedometers nailed it.

Here’s what the SPX looked like when the cash SPX was at its worst (close to it) this morning.  Collectively, you’ll probably never see an uglier overall picture from the technicals as you see here.  This is a chart for textbooks (and history books).     The good news is we were prevented from seeing something even uglier. SPX futures were frozen for the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Buckle Up! SPX downdraft on doorstep

The current Greedometer and mini Greedometer sequence (sequence 10) has been gradually warped by an unparalleled barrage of central bank actions (and threats — jail time!) and is beginning to stabilize into a waveform (Greedometer sequence) that is between that of sequence 2 (year 2007-2009) and sequence 4 (2011). For reference purposes….  Observe the 2000rpm drop in Greedo values between the Oct  2007 crash […] Read the rest of this entry »